Geopolitics of the Red Sea & East Africa | CIG #commentary | /CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

Geopolitics of the Red Sea & East Africa | CIG #commentary

While analysts held a magnifying lens over the Bab al-Mandab Strait due to Houthi attacks on shipping, several actors in East Africa have carried out notable actions from under the noses of international scrutiny. Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates are making big plays in the region, while Egypt, which should be furious, continues to sleep.

Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia, hosted a series of important meetings.

Muse Bihi Abdi, the President of Somaliland, a breakaway Republic in Somalia seeking state recognition, met with Prime Minister Abiy. They agreed to lend port access to the Red Sea for landlocked Ethiopia. This comes days after the President of Djibouti mediated an attempted reconciliation between the governments of Somaliland and Somalia in Mogadishu.

Commander Dagalo of the RSF, a rebel group in Sudan attempting to install a new Junta government, met with the Deputy Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Demeke Mekonnen and then Abdalla Hamdok, the ex Prime Minister of Sudan. This is part of Commander Dagalo's tour of East Africa, in which he seeks to gain legitimacy from neighboring countries while masquerading as peace talks. He has also been recently received by leaders in Uganda and Djibouti. Notably, Eritrea is absent on his tour.

Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the recent ally of Ethiopia in the Tigrayan War, have soured. The border has been re-closed, Ethiopian troops have amassed 100 miles from the Eritrean capital, and Ethiopia has vowed to regain access to the Red Sea, as it once held prior to the Eritrean War of Independence.

The United Arab Emirates heavily finances Ethiopia and Somaliland and is a key supplier of armaments for the RSF and Dagalo's ally, Marshal Haftar, the strongman of Eastern Libya. Leaving them at odds with Egypt in some spheres, save for cooperation in Libya.

What will Egypt do? Situated in a rough neighborhood involving an uneasy cold war with Ethiopia, they risk losing their water supply to ambitious Abyssinians quickly gaining hegemony over East Africa. However, their allies such as Sudan, Eritrea, and Djibouti hold Red Sea ports, containing Ethiopia as a landlocked power until recently. Ethiopia's main port access to the Red Sea was Djibouti. Soon, it will be Berbera of Somaliland. Ethiopia also holds interest in Sudan's Kassala region, on the road to Port Sudan, and revanchist attitudes towards Eritrea. This would cut Djibouti's trade flows from Ethiopia as it seeks to operate in ports along their flanks. Egypt will have to respond to Ethiopia soon or risk losing drinking water and their neighborhood friends on a kill avenue.

Where there are opportunities, there are investments. This decade may see near-future changes to the Red Sea. Iran, which holds good relations with Ethiopia, may find itself directly trading with Ethiopian ports and granted naval access to project into the Bab al-Mandab Strait. China, which finances and constructs ports across Africa, may find itself in high demand to renovate future infrastructure. Of course, all of this depends on whether Egypt or Ethiopia can find a manageable resolution to their regional competition, or a new order emerges in an increasingly deglobalized world.

https://telegra.ph/Geopolitics-of-the-Red-Sea--East-Africa-01-02