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2022-09-02 03:53:24 Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research –2 September 2022

MYNEWS: Slowly but surely

Convenient store (CVS) operator. Being the largest home-grown retail convenience store operator in Malaysia, MYNEWS' portfolio includes Mynews, Mynews Supervalue, CU, and WH Smith Travel Limited. By entering into two separate agreements with Japanese wholly-owned companies in 2017, MYNEWS diversified into fresh food production to supply and sell Halal ready-to-eat food and baked goods to enhance the fresh food offerings at its stores. As of 2Q22, MYNEWS owns 558 outlets (vs 4QFY21: 542 outlets).

CU-the largest CVS from Korea. In April 2021, MYNEWS launched its first CU store –the largest convenience store in South Korea – to complement its existing CVS line-up, offering Ready-to-Eat fresh food with South Korean street food flavors, snacks, beverages, and beauty products imported from South Korea. Since then, the number of CU outlets grew encouragingly to 95 in 2Q22 from 61 in 1Q22. With c.65% of the selection focusing on the fresh food segment, which typically gamers a higher margin than other products, the rollout of CU is deemed as one of the major long term earnings drivers. The ramping up of CU stores opening will also complement MYNEWS’ food processing centre (FPC) by improving its utilisation rate.

Despite persistent losses for nine consecutive quarters – as CU is still undergoing painstaking gestation period (c.2.5 years) despite being a beneficiary of the economic recovery – market consensus is expecting MYNEWS to return to black by FY23, premised by (i) growth in number of stores; (ii) improvement in efficiency in running the FPC (iii) bigger contribution from CU stores with a higher proportion from fresh food segments that command higher margin; and (iv) potential of new RTE product launches.

Pending Double bottom breakout. Technically, MYNEWS is pending for a double bottom breakout. A successful breakout above the RM0.47 neckline will indicate a downtrend reversal and spur the price toward RM0.50-0.52-0.55 level. Cut loss at RM0.39.

Collection range: RM0.40-0.42-0.45

Upside targets: RM0.50-0.52-0.55

Cut: RM0.39

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MYNEWS：稳定增长

便利店（CVS）运营商。作为马来西亚最大的本土零售便利店运营商，MYNEWS 所拥有的品牌组合包括 Mynews、Mynews Supervalue、CU 和 WH Smith Travel Limited。通过在 2017 年与日本全资公司签订两项单独的协议，MYNEWS 涉足生鲜食品生产，供应和销售清真即食食品和烘焙食品，以提升其门店的生鲜食品供应。截至 2022 年第 2 季度，MYNEWS 拥有 558 家分行（2021 财年第 4 季度：542 家分行）。

CU-韩国最大的CVS。 2021 年 4 月，MYNEWS 开设了第一家 —CU 店韩国最大的便利店—以补充其现有的 CVS 产品线，提供韩国街头风味的即食生鲜食品、零食、饮料和美容产品（从韩国进口）。此后，CU 门店数量从 2022 年第一季度的 61 家增至第二季度的 95 家。在CU 专注于高利润率的新鲜食品领域 (c.65%的总产品)，CU的推出被视为MYNEWS的主要盈利驱动因素之一。 除此之外，CU 门店的增加也将提高MYNEWS 的食品加工中心 (FPC) 利用率。

尽管 MYNEWS 是经济复苏的受益者，但由于CU仍处于艰苦的酝酿阶段（约 2.5 年），导致了MYNEWS 连续九个季度持续亏损。话虽如此，市场共识预计 MYNEWS 将在 23 财年恢复盈利，前提是 (i)店铺数量的增加； (ii) FPC 的利用率的提高 (iii) CU 门店的贡献更大，利润率更高的生鲜领域的比例增加； (iv) 新 RTE 产品推出的可能性。

等待双底突破。从技术上讲，MYNEWS 正在等待双底突破。股价若成功突破 RM0.47 颈线将表明下跌趋势反转，并将价格推向 RM0.50-0.52-0.55 水平。投资者可把止损设置在RM0.39。

买入范围：RM0.40-0.42-0.45

上行目标：RM0.50-0.52-0.55

止损：RM0.39

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2022-08-30 12:27:37 Wishing you and your loved ones, Selamat Hari Merdeka!

#HongLeongInvestmentBank
#harimerdeka
#holidayvibes
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2022-08-30 09:51:48 HLIB Retail Research - 30 August- Bullish Tracker

MEDIA : Poised for a LT downtrend line breakout near 0.475

Sector: Telco & media

HLIB TP: RM0.54
Consensus Buy retings: 89%
FY23E PER/DY: 10.2x/5.4%


Entry: RM0.44-0.465
Stop Loss: RM0.42
Resistance: RM0.475-0.50-0.545
Target price: RM0.50-0.545
Risk profile: Moderate

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2022-08-30 05:11:35 HLIB Retail Research - 30 August- Bullish Tracker

MYEG : Potential rebound after yesterday's selldown.

Business: Digital Service
Bloomberg TP: RM1.26
Consensus Buy ratings: 100%

Entry: RM0.71-0.73
Stop Loss: RM0.69
Resistance: RM0.755-0.76-0.81
Target price: RM0.76-0.81
Risk profile: High

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2022-08-30 05:07:12 HLIB Retail Research - 30 August- Bullish Tracker

DNEX : Sideways. More upside if 20d ma near 0.87 is taken out successfully

Business:Technology, IT & Oil and gas

Entry: RM0.83-0.85
Stop Loss: RM0.80
Resistance: RM0.92-0.985-1.08
Target price: RM0.92-0.985
Risk profile: Moderate

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2022-08-30 04:20:54 Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research –30 Aug 2022

MRDIY: A beneficiary of consumer downtrading

Value retailers to gain prominence amid elevated inflation. We believe MRDIY’s sales performance is likely to be sustained despite persistent high inflation and price revision exercises. In our view, inflation-strapped consumers would gravitate towards value retailers such as MRDIY. Underpinned by over 900-strong store network, the group has strong bargaining power with suppliers and economies of scale to provide value to its customers.

Despite lingering concerns over inventory shortages in MRDIY as >70% of its products sourced from China amid protracted supply chain disruptions, we reckon that MRDIY’s inventory days of 126 should be sufficient to cover more than one quarter of sales. Separately, the margin erosion experienced in 1H22 is expected to improve in 2H22 following the price hike across broad categories of MRDIY’s products in April and May (to be reflected in upcoming earnings).

Riding on steady store expansion. In 1H22, MRDIY opened 93 new stores, which makes up 52% of the group’s target of 190 additional stores for FY22. This includes the recently launched Mr DIY Plus in Mid Valley Megamall that spans a bigger space of 30k sqft (vs average 10k sqft Mr DIY), which houses all three brands – Mr DIY, Mr Dollar, and Mr Toy – under one roof. We gather that the initial reception of Mr DIY Plus is encouraging, with more than 100k transactions in the first month. We also gather that the group is planning to expand Mr DIY PLUS to 10 stores in the next 2-3 years with a focus on prime locations with higher foot traffic. We think the launch of Mr DIY PLUS would bolster MRDIY’s brand stature and further widen its exposure, given its larger and more upscale format, with 20,000 types of products across five major categories, namely, hardware, household and furnishing, electrical, stationery and sports equipment product.

In light of steady store expansion and omnichannel strategy (online, Touch ‘n Go collaboration), we are projecting Mr DIY’S core PATAMI to register a strong 37.2% FY21-24F CAGR.

Limited downside. Technically, MRDIY is trading at the support area of RM1.95-2.10, with indicators showing uptick bias. A successful breakout above RM2.13 (0.618 FR) will spur the prices toward RM2.20-2.28-2.36 level. Cut lost at RM1.90.

Collection range: RM1.95-2.00-2.10

Upside targets: RM2.20-2.28-2.36

Cut: RM1.90

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2022-08-26 02:54:53 Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research –26 Aug 2022

ASTRO: Grossly oversold

The infection point. Weighed by the illegal TV box piracy and intense competition from Unifi TV and streaming service (i.e Netflix and Disney+), ASTRO's subscription revenue (>70% of revenue contribution) experienced tremendous pressure and has been on a declining trend since 2018. As a result, ASTRO's share price slid 61% from 2018's peak of RM2.10 to RM0.84 yesterday, tracking the falling household penetration rate from a peak of c.77% to c.71% in 1Q23.

While the outlook for ASTRO's TV operation remains challenging, several key developments were implemented by the authorities may bode well for the group. For instance, the enforcement of the Copyright (Amendment) Act 2022 will help to reduce the number of illegal TV boxes being used and sold as it allows ASTRO to take legal action against illegal TV Box sellers and distributors of its content. Also, the launch of its broadband services and becoming a streaming service aggregator at the same time enables ASTRO to provide a similar value proposition as TM in the way of one-bill convenience and additional cost savings from the bundles.

Advertising segment. Astro's advertising revenue was also cannibalized by the advent of Facebook and Google, which collectively took up an estimated 80% of digital adex share in Malaysia. That said, we note that advertisers are increasingly adopting an omnichannel advertising approach (a method where advertisers do not just advertise through online platforms but also through traditional media platforms to widen their audience reach) which will benefit the local media players. We also note that the ROI gap on ad spend on Facebook and Google vs ASTRO has substantially narrowed over the years following Malaysia introducing a 6% digital tax on foreign digital services providers in 2020. Furthermore, with ASTRO launching addressable advertising in 2022, allowing it to serve targeted ads to different customer segments based on their profiles, this ROI gap is anticipated to narrow further.

Limited downside amid grossly oversold level. Technically, ASTRO is grossly oversold with indicators on the mend. A successful breakout above RM0.86 will spur the price toward RM0.88-0.92-0.94 level. Cut loss at RM0.79.

Collection range: RM0.81-0.83-0.85

Upside targets: RM0.88-0.92-0.94

Cut: RM0.79

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ASTRO：严重超卖阶段

转折点。受非法电视盒盗版以及来自 Unifi TV 和流媒体服务（即 Netflix 和 Disney+）的激烈竞争的拖累，ASTRO 的订阅收入（占收入贡献的 70% 以上）承受了巨大压力，自 2018 年以来一直呈下降趋势。因此，ASTRO 的股价从 2018 年的峰值RM 2.10下跌 61% 至昨天的 RM0.84，家庭渗透率从 23 年第一季度的峰值约 77% 下降至约 71%。

虽然 ASTRO 电视业务的前景仍然充满挑战，但当局实施的几项关键发展可能对该集团来说是个好兆头。例如，《2022 年版权（修正）法》的实施将有助于减少非法电视盒的使用和销售数量，因为它允许 ASTRO 对其内容的非法电视盒销售商和分销商采取法律行动。此外，其宽带服务的推出并同时成为流媒体服务聚合商，使 ASTRO 能够提供与 TM 类似的服务，即一张账单的便利性和较便宜的价格。

广告板块。 Astro 的广告收入也因 Facebook 和 Google 的出现而被蚕食，这两家公司共同占据了马来西亚数字 adex 市场约 80% 的份额。尽管如此，我们注意到广告商开始采用全渠道广告方式（广告商不仅通过在线平台做广告，还通过传统媒体平台扩大受众范围），这将有利于本地媒体。我们还注意到，随着马来西亚于 2020 年对外国数字服务提供商征收 6% 的数字税，多年来 Facebook 和谷歌与 ASTRO 广告支出的投资回报率差距已大大缩小。此外，随着 ASTRO 在 2022 年推出可寻址电视广告服务，允许其根据消费者的个人资料向不同的客户群提供有针对性的广告，预计这种投资回报率差距将进一步缩小。

在严重超卖的情况下，下行空间有限。从技术上讲，ASTRO 处于严重超卖阶段，技术指标正在好转。股价若成功突破 RM0.86 将推动价格升至 RM0.88-0.92-0.94 水平。投资者可把止损 设置在RM0.79。

买入范围：RM0.81-0.83-0.85

上行目标：RM0.88-0.92-0.94

止损：RM0.79

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2022-08-24 03:59:53 HLIB Retail Research - 24 August- Bullish Tracker

CWG (9423-Not rated): Poised for a rounding bottom formation amid a strong turnaround in its 4QFY6/22 results and active share buyback since Aug 2022.

Profile: Manufacturing and sale of stationary and printing materials. In FY6/2022, over 70% of its revenue was derived from export markets.

BVPS: RM0.61
DPS (final): 0.5sen
Entry: RM0.35-0.37
Stop Loss: RM0.33
Resistance: RM0.39-0.41-0.45
Target price: RM0.41-0.45
Risk profile: Moderate

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2022-08-24 03:58:59 HLIB Retail Research - 24 August- Bullish Tracker:

HIBISCUS : Double bottom breakout.
Sector: Main market, Oil & Gas

Entry: RM0.94-0.98
Stop Loss: RM0.93
Resistance: RM1.02-1.06-1.10
Target price: RM1.06-1.10
Risk profile: Moderate

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2022-08-24 03:58:11 Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research –24 Aug 2022

Cengild: Stomach for growth

Specialised healthcare service provider. Cengild Medical Berhad (CENGILD) is a healthcare service provider, providing tertiary care and specialising in diagnosing and treating gastrointestinal and liver diseases and obesity. It also provides other medical services, including the diagnosis and treatment of selected gynecology, urology, and oncology-related conditions, as well as general cardiology assessments. Majority of CENGILD’s patients are local patients, accounting for 95.3% of its revenue in FY20, while foreign patients contribute the remaining 4.7%

Riding on the growing prevalence of obesity. Obesity is among the factors that could raise the risk of a person developing gastrointestinal diseases and disorders, and the prevalence of obesity among Malaysians above the age of 18 has been on an increasing trend, from 15.2% in 2011 to 19.7% in 2019. According to the 2019 National Health and Morbidity Survey, Malaysia also has the highest prevalence of obesity among adults in Southeast Asia, with 50.1% of Malaysian adults reported to be overweight. This, in our view, allows CENGILD to capture and serve the growing market (c.4.3% market share in FY21).

Private healthcare, a growing pie. Generally, healthcare services in Malaysia is a two-tiered system, categorized as public and private healthcare service, with the former making up 46-49% market share while the latter making up 51-54% market share. On top of the growing population that serves as a baseline growth for private healthcare services, the better access and increasing availability of medical insurance packages in Malaysia can help to reduce reliance on out-of-pocket spending (73.6% of the source of financing in private healthcare) and encourage the transition from public to private healthcare services. Protégé projects the Malaysia private healthcare sector to grow at a 4-year CAGR of 9.5%.

Trading near uptrend support. Technically, CENGILD is trading near its uptrend channel support of RM0.42-0.45. In the wake of the higher high pattern, a decisive breakout above RM0.48 will spur prices higher towards RM0.50-0.52-0.55 territory. Cut loss at RM0.39.

Collection range: RM0.42-0.43-0.45

Upside targets: RM0.50-0.52-0.55

Cut: RM0.39

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Cengild：胃肠道的专科

专业的医疗保健服务提供商。 Cengild Medical Berhad (CENGILD) 是一家医疗保健服务提供商，提供三级护理，专门诊断和治疗胃肠道和肝脏疾病以及肥胖症。它还提供其他医疗服务，包括妇科、泌尿科和肿瘤科相关疾病的诊断和治疗，以及一般心脏病学评估。 CENGILD 的大部分患者是本地患者，占其 FY20 收入的 95.3%，而外国患者贡献了剩余的 4.7%

肥胖症日益流行。肥胖是可能增加一个人患肠胃疾病和失调风险的因素之一，而 18 岁以上马来西亚人的肥胖患病率呈上升趋势，从 2011 年的 15.2% 上升到 2019 年的 19.7%。根据 2019 年全国健康和发病率调查，马来西亚也是东南亚成年人肥胖率最高的国家，据报道有 50.1% 的马来西亚成年人超重。我们认为，这使 CENGILD 能够占领并服务于不断增长的市场（21 财年市场份额约为 4.3%）。

私人医疗保健，一个不断增长的馅饼。一般来说，马来西亚的医疗保健服务是一个两级系统，分为公共和私人医疗保健服务，前者占 46-49% 的市场份额，而后者占 51-54% 的市场份额。私人医疗保健服务市场除了随着人口的增长而扩大外，马来西亚更容易地获取和更多元化的医疗保险套餐可以帮助减少自付费用（私人医疗保健资金来源的 73.6%）并鼓励从公共医疗保健服务向私人医疗保健服务过渡。 Protégé 预计马来西亚私人医疗保健行业将以 9.5% 的 4 年复合年增长率增长。

在上升趋势支撑附近交易。从技术上讲，CENGILD 的交易价格接近其上升通道支撑位 RM0.42-0.45。在预计更高的高点下，若CENGILD突破 RM0.48 将推动价格上涨至 RM0.50-0.52-0.55 区域。止损 RM0.39。

买入范围：RM0.42-0.43-0.45

上行目标：RM0.50-0.52-0.55

止损点：RM0.39

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