2023-05-01 20:50:41
A Simple Strategy to Beat the Market in the Long-RunAccording to many analysts, it's impossible to beat the market in the long run. However, year after year, many investors can do it.
If not, there wouldn't be famous investors at all! It is true that past returns can't guarantee future ones. However, with this simple trend-following strategy, you would have beaten the market.
With only a moving average and the use of Bollinger bands, it is possible to derive positive returns higher than those of a simple buy & hold strategy.
Applying the StrategyThis strategy is simple, and it should not be applied in singular stocks but in broad market ETFs like SPY or QQQ. Why? Because these ETFs are based on tracking the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Index.
As you can see in the image, we plot SPY and only one technical analysis tool. The Bollinger bands. This tool shows 3 lines that create a zone. What do they mean?
The line in the middle is the 26 week moving average of SPY. That way, we have a smoothed trend to follow and brings legitimacy to prices. Remember, if prices are too far away from their medium-term moving average, the risk of seeing an overbought asset increases.
Secondly, we see the plotted two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from the simple moving average (SMA) of an asset’s price.
The standard deviation shows the dispersion of a dataset. That means that price movements outside the Bollinger bands can be considered abnormal.
For example, if an asset has low volatility and suddenly spikes, we will see it out of the Bollinger bands, marking an abnormal behavior.
Do you see what is happening? At this moment, the price movements are close to being in a zone of abnormal behavior. Does this mean we should buy now? Not necessarily.
So what do we do now?We should start thinking about commencing to accumulate assets. Which assets? Well, for example, you may buy SPY or QQQ. However, we should not jump right into the market. First, ask our experts.
If you had traded this way for the last 60-70 years, you would have always made money and beaten the market if you had waited long enough.
Why? Because you wait for the moment to jump instead of buying in regular moments. Entering positions is preferable when prices are significantly lower than the Bollinger Bands.
At this moment, we are entering the zone below the bands, but we can't say yet this is a significant drop. That's why you should ask our experts first which is the desirable % of portfolio weight you should assign to this strategy.
It is preferable to load in batches rather than buying the whole position in one stroke. If you apply this simple strategy and are careful about consulting first, historically speaking, you should do better than most other investors.
#Education
481 views17:50