2021-02-24 23:15:37
Mounting tension
The arrest is the latest and most serious flare-up in a political crisis that has been simmering since last October, when the country’s Georgian Dream party claimed victory in parliamentary elections.
The UNM and other opposition parties boycotted parliament after the vote, claiming the results were rigged and demanding another election. International observer groups gave qualified verdicts, with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) concluding that the vote had been “competitive and, overall, fundamental freedoms were respected,” but also noting there had been “pervasive allegations of pressure on voters.”
Since Georgian Dream first won an election in 2012, opposition leaders have complained that the country has taken a more pro-Russian course at odds with the majority of the country’s desires. They accuse Georgian Dream’s billionaire founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, of running the country from behind the scenes and cozying up to Russia.
Ivanishvili — who made his money in Russia in the cut-throat 1990s — has not publicly turned away from the West, but the country’s stance toward Moscow has softened in recent years, and pro-Russian parties have gained ground.
Melia has been among the most vocal in making this charge — helping lead a 2019 protest against Russian influence. A blunt headline on a Russian media report about his detention summed up the establishment view in Moscow: “Leader of anti-Russian demonstrations arrested.”
That protest two years ago also led to Melia’s arrest on incitement charges and the official case against him. But while the government maintains it is simply enforcing the rule of law, the opposition says it is using the case as a way to silence one of its most effective opponents.
One of Melia’s opposition allies, MP Elene Khoshtaria, painted Georgia’s political crisis as part of broader protest movements across the region.
“There is a wave of people fighting for freedom, it’s in Belarus, it’s in Russia and it’s here in Georgia,” she said. “And it is in the strategic interest of the West to support these democratic movements.”
Language like this causes tremors in the Kremlin, which has long accused the West of interfering in a region that it regards as its backyard. But it has shown little interest in the views of Georgians, where opinion polls show solid public support for joining NATO and the EU.
Next steps
One former U.S. ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul — who visited Georgia with then-Vice President Joe Biden in 2009 — on Tuesday called the Georgia situation the “third” big foreign policy test for now-President Biden’s new U.S. administration.
Some opposition voices are calling for a tougher Western response, including sanctions targeting Ivanishvili — similar to those imposed on Russia in response to the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
“I’m waiting to see the same in Georgia,” said Nino Burjanadze, a former parliamentary speaker who has also advocated a more accommodating stance toward the Kremlin in the past.
For all the defiance coming from Garibashvili, the new Georgian prime minister, he is unlikely to want further confrontation with the U.S. and European allies. Unlike in Belarus, the Georgian government has shown it cares how it is viewed in the West. There was a tacit acknowledgment of that from the Georgian Dream party chairman, Irakli Kobakhidze, defending Melia’s arrest.
At the same time, it’s not clear how a long and protracted standoff can be avoided. U.S. and European envoys had been trying to mediate a compromise long before the crisis over Melia’s arrest. And still, Georgian Dream is refusing to back new elections, while the opposition is calling for more street protests.
Zura Mchedlishvili, his face in a red and blue mask as he stood outside parliament, had little hope: “I’m 36 and it just feels like we’re turning in circles.”
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