The Stans want nothing to do with Vladimir Putin’s invasion of | USSR 2.0

The Stans want nothing to do with Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine

Central Asian republics were once part of the Soviet Union, some of them share a long border with Russia, and their population includes a large ethnic-Russian minority. Russian language also still dominates an info sphere of the region. Broadly speaking, they might be considered as allies of Russia; however, the aggressive expansionism of their former colonial master is testing that friendship to the limit.

Importantly, none of the countries has condemned the invasion but nor has any succumbed to pressure to follow Mr Putin’s lead and recognise the breakaway regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. At a vote in the un General Assembly deploring the invasion, on March 2nd, three abstained and two simply did not show up.

Kazakhstan, the biggest and richest of the lot, has long cultivated warm relations with Russia. In January, when protests in several cities turned violent and threatened to destabilise the country, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev, Kazakhstan’s president, invoked the treaty’s mutual-defence clause and asked for help from Mr Putin, who duly delivered. But the country also enjoys good relations with the West and has no desire to join Russia as an international pariah. He is the only Central Asian leader to have spoken to Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, since the invasion began. Authorities in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, have allowed anti-war protests—though only once—and Kazakh police have fined drivers displaying the letter Z, a symbol of Mr Putin’s invasion. Yet two bloggers known for anti-Russian rhetoric have been jailed, too.

Whatever their leaders’ diplomatic manoeuvres, it will be hard for the Stans to avoid the economic fallout. The rouble’s collapse has dragged down their currencies. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are energy-rich and may hope to cash in on buoyant oil and gas prices. But even that can be held hostage. Russia says a pipeline, which crosses its territory to the Black Sea and carries most Kazakh oil, may close for repairs for two months. The move is seen by many as a response to sanctions, with Kazakhstan as collateral damage. “There is this famous saying that if Russia sneezes, Kazakhstan gets a cold,” says a senior Kazakh official. “This will be not a sneeze but perhaps pneumonia, and we will get covid or something.”

Adapted for USSR 2.0 from The Economist