RussiaGate #Digest

2022-06-06 16:11:02 Former Agriculture Minister of Russia Alexander Tkachev has bought a Crimean holding with more than 20000 hectares of land.

With Russia provoking a food crisis by trapping the Ukranian grain in the country, Tkachev's move of course makes some sense. He has been sanctioned long time ago, so can enter Crimea openly.

There is a good Russian saying about the war being a war for some and a merciful mother for others. It has surely been good for Tkachev. Open / Comment

2022-06-06 12:42:13 One of the rarely talked strategic consequences of Russian operation in Ukraine will be a radical downshifting of Russian Orthodox Church.

Russian Church failed to be a Church and is going through perhaps the worst moral crisis in its history.

Ukranian branch of the Russian Church is cutting ties with Moscow and declaring full independence, and there is nothing Patriarch Kirill can do about it.

The spirit of division between Russians and Ukranians is already so deep that people mostly fail to understand its scale. Open / Comment

2022-06-03 16:01:08 Dmitry Konov, the former CEO of Sibur, is filing an appeal against the sanctions placed on him by the European Union.

Earlier the head of Alfa Bank and LetterOne Group Petr Aven announced that he would also appeal against his sanctions by the EU.

Konov is not a traditional Russian oligarch, he is more of a career executive who enjoyed a formidable reputation in Western petrochemical business.

He was sanctioned only because Sibur's main shareholders - Leonid Mikhelson and Gennady Timchenko - are Putin's cronies.

We do not know what the ruling will be, but it would be an interesting move on behalf of EU to exclude Konov from the sanctions list. Open / Comment

2022-06-03 13:49:03 The sixth package of European sanctions against Russia includes prohibition of SWIFT to Sberbank, Credit Bank of Moscow, and Russian Agricultural Bank.

Basically Russian banks will have to turn to Iranian model of surviving. By the way, according to Russian media Iran is ready to enter barter arrangements with Russia, offering car parts and gas turbines in exchange for steel.

Even in trade with Iran Russia is supposed to give away raw materials and import technologies. Open / Comment

2022-06-02 17:44:32 On June 1 the Credit Derivatives Determinations Committees (CDDC) of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) ruled that said a “failure-to-pay” event occurred on Russian credit-default swaps.

This is the first default event on Russian sovereign debt since the one that followed the 1917 Revolution.

Russia hasn't paid the interest it owed. This ruling of CDDC can trigger massive credit swaps. The default has occured. Open / Comment

2022-06-02 13:43:07 Communist MP Sergei Obukhov confirmed that the party is going through a crisis.

Communists could become the main opposition force during the pandemic when they started to oppose state vaccination policies.

This narrative attracted a lot of people, mainly among the youth. As usual, communists couldn't capitalize and sold out.

Soon enough they were ordered to leave the anti-vaccination narrative. MP Rashkin disagreed and was instantly charged with illegal elk hunting.

Rashkin will pass his mandate to the wife of left-wing activist Sergei Udaltsov who was once arrested for organizing anti-Putin protest.

Good attempt, but we hope nobody will buy it. Russian communists under Zyuganov will always be sellouts. Open / Comment

2022-06-01 17:26:22 EU leaders have reached a compromise deal to ban Russian oil imported by sea, which covers more than two-thirds of the EU’s oil imports from Russia.

Germany and Poland will ban the pipeline oil, too. This means that by the end of the year EU will cut oil imports from Russia by 90%.

Sure enough, grey schemes are already working, but the tendency is more important. It will be much more difficult to cut gas imports, but still possible.

Patience is important in this long-term game. Open / Comment

2022-06-01 15:39:00 The newly elected president of South Ossetia overturned the decision of his predecessor to hold a referendum about joining Russia.

Of course, the call has come from Moscow which is not interested in changing the landscape in the South Caucasus now, when it is stuck in Ukraine.

Referendum was Andrei Turchak's idea and had nothing to do with Russian interests. Turchak has been backing the former leader of South Ossetia Bibilov for years.

Successful referendum was supposed to be his ticket to Kremlin. According to our sources, Turchak wants to take one of the leading positions in the Presidential Administration. Open / Comment

2022-05-31 13:11:02 Scheme of Russian gas infrastructure (Al-Jazeera). Russia's gas exports depend on Europe heavily.

There is no fast and effective way to replace European market.

Basically, Ukraine could stop the conflict by destroying the transit pipelines running through its territory. That would've done it. Open / Comment

2022-05-31 10:56:10 Valentin Yumashev, former head of administration of the first president of Russia Boris Yeltsin, and his son-in-law, resigned from the position of adviser to Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Putin is toxic for the vast majority of Russian elites, but, of course, not everyone can almost openly cut ties with him like Yumashev did. Open / Comment