2023-05-11 14:46:05
In a world with such a diversity of opinions and options it's hard to maintain objectivity and rationality. This is especially true on CT, where many opposing interests mix, such as people trying to make money by shilling any project without any fundamental value or even worse, creating memecoins to later dump on their followers as some are doing recently. That's why it's important to distance oneself from the noise and keep a clear head. This way you'll realize that the bear market hasn't ended yet and this rally has likely already come to its end, with memecoins marking the local top before a massive move to the downside.
If instead of focusing on individual movements in a specific period and with specific coins, you zoom out and focus on the global situation, looking at causes and not just effects, you will see that:
-This move up from the lows that has been completely manipulated by entities that have printed BUSD, USDC (and now also TUSD) out of nothing, with the sole purpose of trapping the bulls and distributing higher, knowing of the inevitable end.
-The movement from the bottom of December 2022 is a correction. This movement is also called an internal retracement, bear market rally, wave B/X, bull trap... Some may disagree that this is not a bull trap. However, if ideal conditions are created for the majority of investors to buy and emotionally engage with their bags, while creating bullish sentiment with high expectations, then if prices make new lows this is clearly a bull trap. In fact, this would be the biggest of them all.
-The only purpose of this movement is to turn everyone bullish (they won't achieve it with me), to be able to sell at higher prices and have exit liquidity again.
-Many altcoins have already retraced a large part of this run. Some others are already below the 2022 low. Others are at major supports or retesting these as resistance.
In my opinion we are about to witness a massive capitulation event. Both technical and fundamental reasons are there. The main target for BTC remains $12k (wicks below are not ruled out, but the high time frame close should be around that level). ETH would reach $500-700. Altcoins would drop 60-80% on average, some even more (like BNB as I explained in a previous post).
Therefore, the most logical thing is to stay out of the market, while building short positions (very low leverage since these are mid-term positions) in altcoins that can drop more than the average, and also ignoring any noise that could distract you from the main plan, a plan which is based on knowledge, experience, and rationality. Apply discipline and patience while enjoying life as one should always do.
"All good things come to those who wait."
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