MONEY TALKS

2022-03-29 08:13:13 has one of the highest NPA percentages amongst the Major G-20 Nations.

Credit to the underwriting of both PSU+Private Banks.

About 85% of these NPAs are from loans and advances of public sector banks.

Banks write off bad loans & NPA's of

" ₹ 10.7 lakh crores" in last 7 years ;
said by RBI in RTI query.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/indianexpress.com/article/business/banking-and-finance/banks-write-off-rs-2-02-lakh-cr-in-fy21-7669513/lite/

Gross NPA of PSBs Down to ₹ 5.60 Lakh Crore.

◇ Update on recovery :

https://www.hindustantimes.com/business/indias-bad-bank-gets-into-action-to-acquire-rs-82-845-crore-npas-soon-101643387346834.html

Banks Recovered ₹ 3.13 Lakh Crore in Past 3 Years

◇ Will these PSU Banks ever create wealth ?

https://twitter.com/AdityaD_Shah/status/1508666971109597186?t=mWsWjAWHf7fwyN1Iwd3GCQ&s=19 Open / Comment

2022-03-28 05:18:16 Short-term yield spreads are a more reliable recession indicator than long-term spreads such as the 2y10y slope.

◇ Investor’s dilemma :

Is debt/fixed income good when FED Fund rate upsurge has begun from 0-0.25% into 1.75-2.0% and 2-10Y yield curve looking beyond 2.15-2.50%?

When interest rates are rising against risk of recession or stagflation, will putting money on equities make sense

Where else to put monies

Commodities are volatile & as alternate asset risk-on here beyond 15-25% could be act of insane

Can’t put lots in real estate, cryptos, art etc.

Is cash the king for rest of 2022?

It gets tough for investors, hence wait & watch

-The varying messages you get from different calculations of the yield curve.

- Consistent with the signal from front-end yields, I think recession risks are low for now but could rise in 2H 2023.

-Recession probability model spiking.

-Momentum-based flows about to flood the Energy Sector.

If you don't understand oil, you won't understand macro right now. Open / Comment

2022-03-27 11:24:29 After seven quarters, India Inc braces for earnings downgrade

UNCTAD cuts India's 2022 growth forecast to 4.6% from 6.7% .

The downgrade is attributed to the Russia-Ukraine war with New Delhi expected to face restraints on energy access and prices, reflexes from trade sanctions etc.

◇ Sectors to be hit :

Auto, consumer staples and durables, NBFCs, cement and sectors.

◇ Sectors to benefit :

Banks, IT, healthcare, metals and oil and gas are poised for stronger EPS growth. Open / Comment

2022-03-27 10:12:06 Especially in the World of Investing,

Nothing is EVERGREEN,

Everything is DECIDUOUS.

https://twitter.com/paisaboltahaiMT/status/1507980535544487940?t=C1-mjDD4h3a28ak2TABGgg&s=19 Open / Comment

2022-03-25 11:02:40 Uninstalling your trading app is directly related to higher returns.

Un-following Twitter Gurus, Telegram Heros, What'sApp Stars is directly related to even much higher returns. Open / Comment

2022-03-21 10:37:44 Elcid investments announces delisting.

Floor price of the delisting offer is ₹1,61,023

Last traded price ₹17

Hardly any volumes but an interesting one atleast for academic purpose.



Open / Comment

2022-03-19 11:01:06 Since the manufacturing cannot be increased on such short notice, the wait times for chip has at an alarming rate from 11.8 weeks in Sept 2019 to 22.3 weeks in Dec 2021

The industry was already worth $440 Billion in 2020 is estimated to grow to $550 Billion in 2021 and will touch $600 billion by early 2022.

This huge gap in supply and demand has created a breakdown in global production of 4 major industries which are,
Auto industry,
LED lighting industry,
Consumer electronics industry
Appliance industry.

In , in Q2 2022
Suzuki could not produce an estimated 1.16 lakh vehicles due to the semiconductor shortage which resulted in the decline in the output by 60%.

In September, before the festive season in ,
in the consumer electronics sector, HP raised the price of its printers by 20%,
Sony said that it won't produce adequate supplies of its PS 5 console until FY23

It has made many countries realise the importance of import substitution to de-risk themselves from such crises in the future. Open / Comment

2022-03-18 11:00:26 Why is there Shortage of Semiconductors all over the world

The 1st reason for this shortage is that the industry had already been growing at such a rapid pace that it was already at the brink of shortage

Today more than 100 Billion integrated circuits are in use every single day all across the world which is equal to the number of stars in our corner of the milky way galaxy

This market is so huge that even with giant players like Intel, Micron, Nvidia, AMD and Qualcomm there still isn't enough supply to cater to the skyrocketing demand

Therefore when the pandemic hit,
on one side while the demand for electronic gadgets skyrocketed due to WFH

On the other side due to the temporary shutdown of factories & shipping services the demand went way beyond the supply capacities.

And the reason why this shortage is so difficult to recover is that manufacturing a microchip typically takes more than three months and involves giant factories, dust-free rooms, multi-million dollar machines, molten tin, and lasers. Open / Comment

2022-03-17 11:01:11 The semiconductor crisis is one of the most critical economic threats looming over the world economy for 2 years now this crisis has been so concerning that Apple Inc lost $6 Billion in in revenue.

The Auto industry itself had already lost $100 Billion in revenue due to chip shortages.

is one of the largest and fastest-growing electronic markets in the

Our economy is again vulnerable to a massive threat due to this crisis.

Semiconductor chip is the of any electronic device & they are responsible to conduct every small action in them and even in our cars

For Eg:

In a car hundreds of semiconductors handle everything starting from your keyless entry to automatic dose and even the functioning of your engine.

Nowadays Semiconductors are by far the most important components that keep the world functioning.

They are as important if not more important than the internet itself



Open / Comment

2022-03-16 11:01:45 Interest rate on EPF has been reduced to 8.1% which is lowest since FY 1978.
The lowest ever figure in 40 years.

Interest rate on Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO)

FY15 - 8.75%
FY16 - 8.80%
FY 17 -8.65%
FY18 - 8.55%
FY19 - 8.65%
FY20 - 8.5%
FY 21-8.5.%
FY 22 -8.10%

Do you think with this rate your PF can fund your retirement

EPFO rates now 8.1%

PPF is 7.1%

FD rates 5-6% ( May inch up a bit).post tax return 3.5-4%

Inflation ~ 6 % (on paper, in reality its much more)

Unless you want to keep running on the treadmill ,u need to invest in equities for the long term to beat inflation.

With the declining fertility rate, a fixed retirement age of 60.

This is a recipe for disaster in the future.

Not every salaried person is a genius in the financial markets & this is not fair with their retirement corpus.

◇ For the Blind Right Wing :

Even this will be a Masterstroke by BJP. This Govt. has always taken the income-tax payer for granted.



Open / Comment