RussiaGate #Digest

2022-04-19 13:01:15 One can say that possible European embargo on Russian oil is a shot in EU's own legs. Let us explain why it's not.

Russian oil is being sold now with a good discount. A lot of traders escape any deals with it, so there seems to be an opportunity to buy a relatively cheap oil.

We have to distinguish price from value and costs though.

The price of Russian oil may be relatively low, but its value along with its costs are extremely high.

Nobody knows for sure the price of economic blackmailing from Russia which comes with its oil and gas and should be included in its value.

It is a calculated move from the EU. Possible recession after the embargo is still a better price. Open / Comment

2022-04-18 18:08:55 Vladimir Putin said again that Russia has endured an unprecedented sanction pressure from the West.

There is either no understanding that sanctions are a long -term game, or Putin is misinformed on the real state of affairs in Russian economy.

For example, Elvira Nabiullina, Head of Russia's Central Bank, clearly has other sources than Putin.

Nabiullina stated today the period when Russian economy can live using reserves will end, and in Q2 or at the beginning of Q3 it will enter the period of structural transformation. Which means recession.

Putin seems to be living day by day, with no regard to future. There are a lot of days after tomorrow though. Open / Comment

2022-04-18 15:18:11 Former vice-president of Gazprombank Vladislav Avaev, his wife and daughter are found dead in Moscow. Open / Comment

2022-04-18 14:08:02 While EU is working on a sweeping sanctions against Sberbank, its former top-managers are fleeing Russia.

Lev Khasis, former First deputy CEO of Sberbank, left Russia and is already in the US.

Khasis left Sberbank right on time - it was February 22. A well-informed man. Open / Comment

2022-04-18 13:49:28 The sixth package of EU sanctions will include ban on Russian oil. The embargo will be introduced.

This is a painful measure which is resisted by at least Germany and Hungary. Berlin gets about 35% of its oil from Russia.

Sanction deals have to be agreed unanimously by all 27 EU members.

The earliest the proposed EU embargo will be put up for negotiation will be after the final round of the French elections, on April 24, but it will more likely be discussed in May.

Sure enough, there will be recession, there will be an economic setback, but Russian economy and budget will be almost dismantled by this measure.

It really isn't that important when the ban is introduced - now or in a couple of years. The decision is taken, and Russia isn't ready to handle it. Open / Comment

2022-04-17 21:50:07 Dmitry Medvedev said today that Russia’s default may entail Europe’s default, both moral and, quite possibly, tangible.

We have only one question: how? With all due respect to President Medvedev, but these delusions are doing no good to Russia. Open / Comment

2022-04-15 17:44:08 Natalia Poklonskaya wrote in her telegram channel that she doesn't want Kyiv to be shelled, reacting to Crimean Deputy PM Vladimir Konstantinov's call to shell Kyiv with Iskander ballistic missiles.

According to Poklonskaya, she is rather looking for peace in Ukraine and wants the destroyed infrastructure and bilateral relations restored.

From the very start of the "campaign" Poklonskaya publicly disapproved it, because Kremlin's rhetorics had been "if you do not support us, then you are our enemy".

Many are unhappy with Poklonskaya's calls, but what can they do? Open / Comment

2022-04-15 13:38:42 Reading some Russian telegram channels leaves you with a strange feeling. Looks like the only good news is "prices in Europe and the US are rising".

Russian narrative is so heavily dominated by the West, especially now, that it's almost ridiculous.

The other strange thing is that Russian propaganda works hard to make Russians proud of their poverty and sufferings.

Poverty and lack of freedom are being depicted as some kind of cultural advantage: Russians can be humiliated in the way Westerners cannot and will still tolerate it.

Moreover, the elder generation of Russians is pushing the narrative "we haven't ever lived well, let the youngsters feel what we went through in the 90s".

Just some cultural notes. Open / Comment

2022-04-14 16:23:51 There are three very important points to consider here:

1. Militarily, the Russians are in a pickle on amphibious plans for Odessa;

2. Politically, explaining why Russia could lose its flagship in the theatre where it has sea control is going to be hard - or even hide it;

3. Symbolically, Moscow is on fire. Open / Comment

2022-04-14 15:46:29 Alessio Patalano, King's College London, on Russian Black Sea flagship "Moskva"'s catastrophe:

"Moskva" was first commissioned in 1983, it was recommissioned in 2000, and was supposed to undergo refit and upgrade in 2016 - but it did not.

With the closure of the Bosporus to all warships, it also meant that this ship would be the main asset available to support Russian naval ops in the BS.

Couple that with the current shift in operation focus south, this is not just any ship. This is key asset.

The ship was operating incredibly close to shore, which is remarkable given the limited point defense system it has.

Tonight Russian commanders will feel less secure as they reflect upon the fact that the BS is no longer their lake. It’s a box with no way out. Open / Comment