RussiaGate #Digest

2022-04-14 11:53:19 Finland will decide on NATO membership in a couple of weeks, in spite of warnings from Moscow.

US will totally support Finland and Sweden's bid.

Finland shares a 1,340km border with Russia and stayed out of NATO for decades, but Kremlin's strategic blunder pushed Helsinki towards the Alliance.

Russia has reacted very nervously via comments from Medvedev, Zakharova and Peskov. Overall Russian sentiment is "now we will have two more enemies".

Smart players are looking for alliances, weak players multiply their enemies.

Great job from Putin though in NATO's favor. Open / Comment

2022-04-13 15:17:42 Sergei Guriev argues that ruble's return to its pre-war exchange rate should not be mistaken as a sign of strength or resilience.

Rather, the currency has benefited from factors that will eventually become major drags on the federal budget and the real economy.

Guriev's argument makes perfect sense. It is not clear what the real value of ruble is because of numerous restrictions put in place by the Bank of Russia.

Russian exporters, for example, are not able to sell 80% of foreign currency inside the country. There is simply no demand because of the imports downfall.

Embargo on oil and gas will effectively kill Russian economy. This is still EU's nuclear option. Open / Comment

2022-04-13 11:48:40 Knowing how "symbolic" Vladimir Putin is, arrest of his closest Ukranian ally and relative Viktor Medvedchuk on April, 12 which is Cosmonaut's Day in Russia, is of course an attempt to humiliate Putin personally. Open / Comment

2022-04-12 17:48:59 President Putin said today that West's economic blitzkrieg has failed

We see no lies here, we see a major misunderstanding.

Sanctions are never a blitzkrieg, they are a long-term instrument of indirect approach.

Western sanctions against Russia have been very effective already. They will be devastating in a year or two.

Some crucially important industries like civil aviation will be gone for good if the West doesn't lift at least some of its sanctions.

The decision has to be made in Russia. West won't back up, we have no significant risks. Open / Comment

2022-04-12 13:22:47 People here have been asking us about the alleged arrest of Vladislav Surkov - the man, the myth, the legend.

We do not know about the arrest, but know exactly that he has some major problems now, as well as many other people.

The point is though that Surkov has always been more of a myth than a man.

One word that describes him the best is "overrated".

Another corrupted public manager, a bit smarter than others, with a bit more taste for literature and art.

He hasn't done anything after 2011 in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Ukraine. "Sovereign democracy" is also in ruins.

So should be Surkov's perspectives. Open / Comment

2022-04-11 16:42:43 Russian telegram-channels have been discussing for several day Josep Borrel's words about the war that should be won on a battlefield.

We hope nobody in is naive enough to think that West will let Russia go out like that.

Russians say "vkhod rubl, vykhod dva" which means "enter costs one rouble, exit costs two". Open / Comment

2022-04-11 15:25:03 Ukrainian case will cost Russia a 11.2% decline of GDP in 2022, according to the World Bank.

Investment in Russia will fall by 16.9%, export of goods and services by 30%, the import will be down by 35.2% year on year.

Inflation forecast is 22%, number of people living under the poverty line will increase from 11% to 12.8%.

This is a full-scale, long-term crisis which Russia in clearly unable to cope with. Open / Comment

2022-04-09 14:02:44 The BBC reports that the Southern Military District (Army General Alexander Dvornikov) will now be in charge of the operation in Ukraine.

This means that the initial Russian plan failed.

The focus of Russia's operation is now on S/SE Ukraine, which has been the Southern Military District's responsibility. Open / Comment

2022-04-08 16:29:21 Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on “paying rubles” for Russian gas:

“We have explained numerous times how it works. Buyers will pay in euros like they did, only they will be transferred to rubles on another accounts”.

Ursula von der Leyen and other European bureaucrats should stop humiliating Russia and quit talking about “gas for rubles”. Enough is enough. Open / Comment

2022-04-08 11:25:24 Aluminium giant Rusal became the first Russian company that called for Bucha massacre investigation.

It looks like nothing special, but in Russia under Putin Rusal's statement is something extraordinary.

Russian businessmen have to understand that they won't be able to stay out of politics anymore.

Otherwise they will lose everything to Putin's siloviks. Open / Comment