*Jackson Hole speech Key takeaways:* *1. Output has surpassed | CapitalVia - Stocks | Nifty | Sensex | Commodity | NSE | BSE

*Jackson Hole speech Key takeaways:*

*1. Output has surpassed pre-crisis growth in 4 quarters* – half the time taken during GFC

*2. Recovery has been uneven* with lower income households having to bear a large burden. Durable goods has boomed while that of services has been weak.

*3. Labor market outlook:* Brightened in recent months. Pace of hiring is very fast and job openings are at record highs. Some factors holding back job seekers are waning.

*4. Inflation outlook:* Dynamics of inflation are complex. The rise in inflation is very narrow in few products such as durable goods and energy prices. Inflation is likely to be temporary. Trimmed mean measures show at or close to longer run objective. Some moderation in prices in high inflation items like used car prices seems to be happening. *Average 2% inflation goal seems to be on track to be achieved.*

*5. Monetary policy outlook:* “Substantial further progress” has been met for inflation. Employment too seems to be progressing well. *If progress continues then asset purchases will most likely be tapered this year.*

*_Overall, the tone of Powell today is similar to last FOMC and forward guidance now suggests that tapering could begin in 2021. We expect tapering quantum to be modest and may be made data dependent. This may cause some volatility in the near-term but the key monitorable will be US inflation trajectory, and global private sector credit cycle. In any case, the Fed rate lift-off is far away._*