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International Bond News
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The latest Messages 39

2022-02-07 16:08:59 Largest EM issues of February 3-7

Issue | Volume

Brazil
Cia Siderurgica Nacional (CSN)(-/BB/BB), 5.875% 8apr2032, USD 500 mln
Initial issue price (yield): 99.982% (5.88%)
Bids: 1 billion USD
The purpose of placing: Refinance
Bookrunner: BNP Paribas, BTG Pactual Holding, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, UBS
Depository: Clearstream Banking S.A., DTCC, Euroclear Bank
200 views13:08
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2022-02-07 15:31:45
US Treasury Securities

Yield Curve

UST 2Y YTM:
1.31% ( 12 bp)
UST 5Y YTM:
1.78% ( 12 bp)
UST 10Y YTM:
1.93% ( 11 bp)
UST 30Y YTM:
2.23% ( 9 bp)

Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors reacted to a surprisingly strong January jobs report. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield at highest level since 2019. The Labor Department said Friday that the economy added 476,000 jobs in January. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected an addition of just 150,000 jobs.

Comment: CNBC
220 views12:31
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2022-02-07 13:23:16 Rating Actions in Foreign Currency on February 4, 2022

Moody's:

assigned Andorra 'Baa2' rating with the stable outlook.
Reasons: "The assignment of the rating balances the following factors: Solid institutional and governance capacity which is supported by greater international openness; Moody's expectation that Andorra's government balance sheet will gradually recover from the pandemic shock; A moderate level of economic strength balancing a wealthy economy with constrained growth potential and exposure to a very large banking sector." Moody's press release.

downgraded Ghana to 'Caa1' from 'B3', revised outlook to stable from negative;
Reasons: "The downgrade to Caa1 reflects the increasingly difficult task the government faces addressing its intertwined liquidity and debt challenges. Weak revenue generation constrains government's budget flexibility and tight funding conditions on international markets have forced the government to rely on costly debt with shorter maturity." Moody's press release

downgraded Mali to 'Caa2' from 'Caa1', put outlook on review for further downgrade.
Reasons: "The downgrade is prompted by missed payments since 28 January on commercial debt obligations issued by the Government of Mali on the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) debt capital market. This is due to the imposition of economic and financial sanctions by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and WAEMU on the Government of Mali in early January 2022." Moody's press release

S&P Global Ratings:

affirmed Ghana at 'B-' with the stable outlook

affirmed Rwanda at 'B+' with the negative outlook

affirmed Bosnia and Herzegovina at 'B' with the stable outlook

upgraded Angola to 'B-' from 'CCC+' with the stable outlook
Reasons: "The stable outlook balances the risks over the next 12 months associated with the still-large external funding needs and financing risks, against gradually declining government debt levels through 2025." S&P's press release

Fitch Ratings:

affirmed Kazakhstan at 'BBB' with the stable outlook

affirmed Georgia at 'BB' with the stable outlook

affirmed Ukraine at 'B' and downgraded the outlook to stable from positive
Reasons: "The Stable Outlook partly reflects our base case that full-scale military conflict with Russia will be avoided, and that the somewhat greater availability of IFI and bilateral finance, Ukraine's credible macro-policy framework and strengthened fiscal and FX reserves position coming into 2022, will help mitigate impacts." Fitch's press release.
87 views10:23
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2022-02-04 19:23:03 Upcoming issue

Issuer: FCT Credit Agricole Habitat

Issue description: bonds

Date: investors' calls will be held 4-7 February

Bookrunners and Lead Managers: Crédit Agricole
171 views16:23
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2022-02-04 16:33:38 Largest EM issues of February 2-4

Issue | Volume

Philippines
Asian Development Bank (ADB)(Aaa/AAA/AAA), 12% 16feb2024, UAH 300 mln
The purpose of placing: General Corporate Purposes
Listing: Luxembourg S.E.

Colombia
Patrimonio Autonomo Union del Sur, 6.66% 28feb2041, COP 1,027 bn
Initial issue price (yield): 100%

Czech Republic
SAZKA Group (-/BB-/BB-), FRN 15feb2028, EUR 400 mln
Initial issue price (yield): 99.5%
The purpose of placing: General Corporate Purposes, Refinance
Listing: The International Stock Exchange (TISE)
Bookrunner: BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Societe Generale, UniCredit
Depository: Clearstream Banking S.A., DTCC, Euroclear Bank
200 views13:33
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2022-02-04 16:04:11 Upcoming issue

Issuer: Nigeria's Bank of Industry

Issue description: debut bonds in euros

Date: soon

Bookrunners and Lead Managers: Citigroup, Rand Merchant Bank, Africa Finance Corporation and African Export-Import Bank are global co-ordinators and bookrunners. SMBC and Mashreq are bookrunners and lead managers
171 views13:04
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2022-02-04 10:00:19
US Treasury Securities

Yield Curve

UST 2Y YTM:
1.19% ( 3 bp)
UST 5Y YTM:
1.66% ( 6 bp)
UST 10Y YTM:
1.82% ( 4 bp)
UST 30Y YTM:
2.14% ( 3 bp)

Treasury yields rose on Thursday as investors remained focused on a key jobs report. The closely watched non-farm payrolls report is due out on Friday morning. Economists expect that 150,000 jobs will have been added in January.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank has kept key interest rates unchanged despite record rises in inflation.

Comment: CNBC
224 views07:00
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2022-02-03 17:08:40 Cbonds Global Monthly Newsletter Issue Statistic and League Tables for January 2022

The report gives data on global EM and DM, regions Asia, LatAM, CEE, CIS, the Middle East and Africa, and country pages for Russia and the USA. Newsletter also provides ESG debt instruments data and statistics on international bond market debut issuers.

Download the report (for free after registration): GLOBAL MONTHLY NEWSLETTER

January highlights:

The amount of new issues significantly increased in January 2022 compared to December 2021. However, the amount in EM and DM markets didn't outperform the numbers of the last year — -48% and -7%, respectively, compared to January 2021.

7 sovereigns tapped the global debt market in January 2022, placing 14 Eurobonds for a total of 20.8 bn dollars. Chile issued three tranches of sustainable Eurobonds, raising 4 bn dollars.

Asian emitents issued Eurobonds for 34 bn dollars in January 2022, three times more than in previous month.

Debut issuers raised 39.1 bn dollars on the international bond market in January 2022. Emerging market issues made up only 25% of all debut Eurobonds.

The amount of new ESG issues placed in January 2022 is equal to 46 bn dollars. This month's amount of newly issued ESG bonds is most significant for the last two years. Green bonds represent the largest part of all ESG issues placed in 2022 - 46%.
230 viewsedited  14:08
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2022-02-03 16:32:57 Largest EM issues of February 1-3

Issue | Volume

Czech Republic
Sazka, 3.875% 15feb2027, EUR 500 mln
Initial issue price: (yield) 99.24% (4.81%)
Settlement Duration: 2.85 years
Listing: The International Stock Exchange (TISE)
Bookrunner: HSBC, JP Morgan, Societe Generale, UniCredit
Depository: Clearstream Banking S.A., DTCC, Euroclear Bank
191 views13:32
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2022-02-03 13:07:20 #Analytics
Riding on the storm

Source: CIS+ regional economics, Renaissance Capital

The start of the year was tough for CIS+ markets amid geopolitical tensions. However, we see solid upside for our markets if the worst-case scenario is avoided – which is our base case – supported by strong fundamentals, prudent fiscal and monetary policy mix and strong commodity outlook.

Healthy growth in 2022 with some catch-up potential

We forecast solid economic growth in the CIS+ space in 2022 and 2023 – moderating vs the 2021 rebound, but remaining above the pre-crisis five-year average. We believe growth will be supported by a robust commodity outlook and remaining catch-up potential amid further adaptation to life with COVID-19. We view Uzbekistan, Tajikistan (the youngest countries) and Kazakhstan, Georgia, Moldova and Armenia (benefiting from residual post-crisis recovery momentum (in commodity production, tourism and other services) and more supportive fiscal policy) as the main 2022 growth outperformers. We see 2022 GDP growth at or above 5% YoY in in these countries, with Kazakhstan and Georgia our main above-consensus calls. We forecast growth in Russia at a solid 2.7% (4.5% in 2021), double the 10-year average. We estimate longer-term potential growth above 4% in six of the 10 CIS+ economies we cover, driven by a growing labour force and reform momentum.

We see tangible upside potential for both the rouble and Russian asset prices as soon as fears of a military conflict fade: with potential 6-9% rouble appreciation (to RUB 70-72/$), a 30-40% equity market recovery and 50-80-bpt spread compression for sovereign bonds by end-2022. We see the potentially best entry point to local currency bonds in Russia – as well as other available local CIS+ bonds – in late 1Q22 after geopolitical uncertainty subsides and the monetary policy rate-hiking cycle reaches its peak (at 10.0% for Russia).

Read the full report here
221 views10:07
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