2022-06-08 17:55:59
Forecast: Previous:
325K 428K
Non-farm payrolls or NFP are an aggregation of payroll jobs available within the non-farm payroll
classification designated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. NFP forex event is one of the most
important economic events for the foreign exchange industry. The report is released monthly, usually
on the first Friday of every month, and heavily affects the U.S. dollar, the bond market, and the stock
market.
The value of the NFP indicates the increase or decrease in the employee numbers in the last month,
excluding the farming sector. When NFP numbers rise, it suggests that businesses expect growth.
Hence, they are hiring more employees. These new employees getting salaries are likely to purchase
services and goods, leading to further development. When businesses do not expect growth, they do
not hire, and there is a decrease in NFP figures.
The US economy added 428K jobs in April of 2022, the same as a downwardly revised 428K in March
and above forecasts of 391K. It marks a 12th straight month of job gains above 400K but easing from
a February gain of 714K amid an increasingly tight labor market. Employment increased across all
sectors, with the largest gains occurring in leisure and hospitality (78K), namely food services and
drinking places (44K) and accommodation (22K); manufacturing (55K), mainly durable goods (31K);
and transportation and warehousing (52K). Still, that leaves the economy down by 1.2 million from its
pre-pandemic level with leisure and hospitality (-1.44 million), local government (-596K), and
education and health services (-409K) remaining considerably below March 2020 levels. Economists
believe the labour market could soon start to slowdown as the economy gets close to full employment,
which would provide some relief to hot wage growth at a time inflation is running at levels not seen
since 1981.
The US unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6 percent in April of 2022, remaining the lowest since
February 2020 and compared with market expectations of 3.5 percent. The number of unemployed
people declined by 11 thousand to 5.941 million, while employment levels fell by 353 thousand to
158.105 million. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate fell to a 3-month low of 62.2 percent in
April, from 62.4 percent in March. Consensus expectations are for the unemployment rate to decline
to 3.5% in May.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 10 cents,
or 0.3%, to $31.85 in April of 2022, after an upwardly revised 0.5% rise in March and below market
expectations for a 0.4% increase. In April, the average hourly earnings of private sector production
and nonsupervisory employees rose by 10 cents, or 0.4%, to $27.12. Over the past 12 months, average
hourly earnings have increased by 5.5%, following a 5.6% increase in March. The Average Hourly
Earnings MoM for May are expected to rise from 0.3% to 0.4%.
The jobs openings are expected to come in around 11.4 million, which would be down slightly from
the 11.55 million reported for the prior month. In the United States, job openings refer to all positions
that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job
Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The survey collects data from around 16,400 nonfarm
establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government
entities. The JOLTS assesses the unmet demand for labor in the U.S. Employers may not be posting as many new job openings as they were late last year, and at the margin, more Americans are claiming
unemployment benefits than were at the start of this quarter.
U.S. GDP Growth Rate - The US economy contracted an annualized 1.5% on quarter in the first three
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