2023-04-16 14:54:23
Regarding the situation in Sudan.
By what we're hearing, here's what happened over the past few days…
1) The Military council had disagreements with the civilian one in the government
2) Rapid Support Forces - a paramilitary force, mobilized without permission of the Sudanese Ministry of Defense.
3) Today theres shootings around airbases and near settlements, casualties are unknown and we don't know who's shooting at who, although it's probably between the Sudanese Army & The RSF.
Now let's dissect the context.
The RSF is a milita, it's the most closely tied organization with Wagner, in which they get a large share of the profits from the Russian smuggling of Gold.
The Sudanese government recently signed an agreement with the Russian federation regarding the construction of a Russian naval base.
Civil groups in Sudan kept appealing for help from outside Western forces in the past few days.
So what are our theories?(1) Wagner, perhaps feeling threatened that the Sudanese government may revoke the permits and crack down on the gold smuggling, which is one of the major sources of income for them, instructed the RSF to commit some mayhem and chaos, with the intention of being anywhere from a full fledged coup to just a delay in any sort of legal action against the Russian companies in Sudan.
(2) The RSF was somehow bought by the civil groups of the government, and now they're the armed front for the civilians, the civilians and the military did not like each other, so now there's some clashes.
(3) the RSF is not even involved in today's clashes, and it's the Popular Defense Front, the front in charge of protecting civil demonstrations and fighting against government police and army, that is currently clashing with government forces.
Situation is blurry, let's wait and see.
@damhistory
2.6K viewsedited 11:54
D
