DK Technical Analysis by Dhananjay Kadam

2023-05-12 06:14:49 15th May 2023.

BSE going to launch

SENSEX 30 Fut (Lot size 10)
Bankex Fut (Lot Size 15)

Expiry Every Friday.


TUESDAY FIN Nifty Expiry

THURSDAY Nifty & Bank Nifty

FRIDAY Sensex & Bankex

KHELO INDIA KHELO..... Open / Comment

2023-05-11 12:32:49 REFEX



RECOMMENDED TO BUY


BETWEEN 315 TO 325



Today 359.70


Today 11% UPPPPPP



Open / Comment

2023-05-11 08:14:51 Telegram Open / Comment

2023-05-11 07:57:53 Telegram Open / Comment

2023-05-11 07:31:03 Photo from Adv Dhananjay Kadam Open / Comment

2023-05-11 07:29:15 NIFTY FUTURE of month expiry

looking bullish above 18365


Keep watch Open / Comment

2023-05-11 07:12:44 Open / Comment

2023-05-11 06:18:19  
·      L&T announced inline with expected Q4 Ebitda but strong order book. Company reported Q4 Net profit Rs3990cr (up 10% YoY)– Bloomberg expectation Rs4032cr, Income Rs58340cr (up 10% YoY) – Expectation Rs58907cr, Ebitda Rs6833cr (up 4.9% YoY) – Bloomberg expectation 7147cr, Ebitda margin at 11.7% vs 12.3% (YoY), New orders Rs76100cr estimates Rs6546cr and Order Book at period end Rs4 lakh cr (up 12% YoY)  - expectation Rs3.89lakh cr
 
·      Venkay’s Q4 Net profit Rs25.2cr (down 56% YoY), Income Rs1042.5cr (down 15% YoY), Ebitda margin 3.3% vs 7% (YoY), Ebitda Rs34cr (down 60.6% YoY)
 
·      Sanfoi India Q1 Net profit Rs190.4cr (down 20% YoY) – Bloomberg expectation Rs131cr, one time gain Rs17.8cr, Ebitda down 18% at Rs230cr, Ebitda margin 31.2% and Income Rs737cr (up 4.2% YoY) – Expectation 690cr
 
·      Escort announced better than expected Q4 Ebitda and Ebitda margin. Company reported Q4 Net profit Rs185.5cr (down 8.2% YoY) – expectation Rs177.9cr, Income Rs2183cr (up 16.8% YoY) – expectation Rs2198.5cr, One tome loss Rs24.4cr Ebitda margin 10.8% vs 13.5 (YoY) – expectation 9.1%, Ebitda Rs236cr (down 6.2% YoY) – expectation Rs199.5cr
 
·      Godrej Consumers announced inline with expected Q4 Ebitda and Ebitda margin. Company reported Q4 Net profit Rs452.1cr (up 24.2% YoY) – expectation Rs380cr, Income Rs3200.2cr (up 9.8% YoY) – expectation Rs3170cr, Ebitda margin 20% vs 17.2 (YoY) – expectation 19.7%, Ebitda Rs641cr (up 37.1% YoY) – expectation Rs630cr
 
·      Hindalco Novelis 4QFY23 first cut – Revenue in-line, EBITDA miss on back of higher input costs - Revenue stood at USD4,397m (YoY/QoQ: -9%/ +5%) which was 8% above our estimates of USD4,055m. Shipment volume stood at 936kt (YoY/QoQ: -5%/ +3%) and was in line to our est of 975kt.  Adj. EBITDA stood at USD403m (YoY/QoQ: -6%/ +18%) was 11% below our estimates of USD452m. The EBITDA was impacted due to lower volumes and higher operating costs. EBITDA/t at USD431/t (YoY/QoQ: -1%/ +15%) was below our est of USD464/t. Adjusted PAT for the quarter stood at USD197m (YoY/QoQ: -13%/ +36%) was above our est of USD164m. Lower tax outgo supported APAT.
  Open / Comment

2023-05-11 06:18:19  
·      Zydus Life – Company  received the Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the USFDA for the inspection conducted at the manufacturing facility of Zydus Life located at Moraiya, Ahmedabad from 23rd to 27th January, 2023. The inspection was a PAI for Transdermal Patch products. The Audit had ended with NIL observations. – positive
 
·      RVNL – Company has received Letter of Acceptance (LOA) from Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) - Mumbai Metro line 2B for "Design, Manufacture, Supply, Installation, Testing and Commissioning of 2 nos cabling work worth Rs300.11cr - positive
 
·      Sanofi India to Demerge, List Consumer Healthcare Business - Sanofi India Ltd. will spin off its consumer healthcare business into Sanofi Consumer Healthcare India with shareholders getting one share of the new company for each owned. Following the demerger, French drugmaker Sanofi will own 60.4% stake in both entities – positive
 
·      HPL Electric won smart meter orders worth Rs 204 crore from customers with a pan-India presence, the company said. HPL currently has an order book of over Rs 1,500 crore.- positive
 
·      Krishna Defence wins Rs63.48cr from Indian Government – positive
 
·      SEPC Ltd - Company and INCO recently completed successful commissioning of the Hutti Gold mines project, with INCO supplying critical equipment such as winders and other mining-related equipment. – positive
 
·      Alembic Pharma- Company has received Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from USFDA for the inspection carried out by them at our Solid Oral Formulation Facility (F-4) at Jarod, Vadodara during the period from 8th December, 2022 to 16th Dec, 2022 – Positive
 
·      Kolte-Patil Developers – Company signed two new residential development projects in Pune, India with a total estimated saleable area of 1.9 million square feet and a revenue potential of Rs1300cr.- positive
 
·      Tinna Rubber, India's largest integrated waste tyre recycler, has been awarded a 2-year contract for the Supply of Crumb Rubber Modifier (CRM) on rate contract basis by IOC for their plants at Mathura and Haldia for a total value of Rs107.5 Crores which is "over 50% growth in total value from previous contract" – positive
 
·      BSL LTD - India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has downgraded BSL Limited's Long-Term Issuer Rating to 'IND BBB-' from 'IND BBB'. The Outlook is Stable. – Avoid
 
·      JSW Steel - Company's standalone crude steel production rose 7% year-on-year to 17.77 lakh tonnes in April. It recorded a 16% YoY growth in production of flat rolled products and 9% YoY decline in long rolled products. Production of rolled long products was lower due to planned capital shutdowns taken at Salem and Vijayanagar plant in April. – Positive
 
·      Raymond: The company will raise Rs 2,200 crore by issuing non-convertible debentures to Raymond Consumer Care for the repayment of external debt. – positive, company announced impressive Q4 results
 
·      Greaves Cotton: The company completed the first stage of the acquisition of a 60% shareholding in Excel Controlinkage.- positive
 
·      Nazara Technologies: The company will invest Rs 15 crore in subsidiary Next Wave Multimedia by acquiring a 19.5% stake from promoters. – Long term positive
 
·      Manappuram Finance - Fitch Ratings on Wednesday said the recent search by the enforcement directorate at gold-backed lender Manappuram  Finance highlights corporate governance challenges that can arise in emerging markets like India.
 
·      AKI India – Company approves stock split from Rs10 to Rs2 - Avoid
 
·      Dividend – Lupin Rs4, Shanti Gear Rs2, Apollo Tyres Rs4, Poly Medicure Rs3, Birla Corp Rs2.50, Raymond Rs3, Kaycee Rs60. Venkay Rs6, Cera Sanitaryware Rs50, Escorts Rs7, Godrej Consumers Rs22, L&T Rs24 a share, Dr Reddy Rs40 Open / Comment

2023-05-11 06:18:18 Nifty rose 49 points or 0.30% to end at 18,315. Capital goods stocks was top gainer today. Auto, FMCG and Oil & Gas Index gained half percent each. Nifty bank index bounced back into positive territory. FIIs were net buyers Rs1833cr while DIIs were net sellers Rs790cr yesterday. 
 
·      Nifty Technical Levels -  Nifty formed a Doji candle on daily scale with long lower shadow indicating support based buying seen at any meaningful declines. Now it has to continue to hold above 18250 zones to witness an up move towards 18400 and 18442 zones while on the downside supports are placed at 18181 and 18081 marks.
 
·      Bank Nifty Technical Levels – Bank Nifty formed a Bullish Pin Bar candle on daily scale with long lower shadow as buying is visible at lower zones. Index has got stuck in wider range on daily scale from past four sessions with buying visible near 42800 levels while facing selling pressure near 43600 zones. Now it has to hold above 43000 zones for an up move towards 43600 then 43750 levels while on the downside support exists at 43000 then 42750 zones.
 
·      Actionable BUY – Escorts, HDFC AMC, MCX, BSE Ltd and Hindustan Aeronautics
 
·      Brokers Radar –  Dr Reddy – Goldman Sachs TGT at 4750, JP Morgan TGT at 3780, Jefferies TGT at 5600, Nomura TGT at 5161, Macquarie TGT at 5250, L&T – Nomura TGT at 2770, Goldman Sachs TGT at 2540, Jefferies TGT at 2900, Citi TGT at 2722, Morgan Stanley TGT at  2827. Escorts - CLSA TGT at 1658 and JP Morgan TGT at 1680
 
·      Events – Weekly Nifty and Bank expiry, Nexus IPO subscribed 57%
 
·      Results –  AB Capital, Alkyl Aminies, Balrampur Chini, Asian Paints, BSE Ltd, CARE, Deepak Nitrite, Lalpath Labs, Everest Industries, Gillette India, GSPL, Intellect Design, Kirloskar Brothers, Mangalam Cement, Neuland Lab, South India Bank, Ujjivan Small Finance Bank and Zensar Tech
 
·      Corporate Action  - Kewal Kiran Clothing Rs2, IndiaMart Rs20, Sirca Paints bonus 1:1
 
·      Global Data – Initial Jobless Claims and PPI (Producing Price Index) -US, House Price Index (UK).
 
·      Market Summary – Sebi grants final approval for proposed change in control of HDFC AMC, Godrej Consumers announced inline with expected Q4 Ebitda and Ebitda margin. , Sanofi India to demerge, list Consumer Healthcare Business, Escort announced better than expected Q4 Ebitda and Ebitda margin, Hindalco’Novelis announced lower than expected quarterly Ebutda, L&T announced nearly inline with expected Q4 results.
 
·      Focus on HDFC Bank, HDFC and HDFC AMC - HDFC Bank said markets regulator SEBI has granted its final approval for the proposed change in control of HDFC AMC. This approval will help pave the way for the merger of  HDFC into HDFC Bank, expected to be finalised by the third quarter of this financial year. Sebi, through its letter dated May 10, 2023 to HDFC AMC, a subsidiary of HDFC Ltd and the investment manager of HDFC AMC AIF II, has granted its final approval for the proposed change in control of HDFC AMC – Expects positive for HDFC Bank and HDFC AMC.
 
·      TVS Motor – Company has delivered 100 units of the iQube electric scooter in New Delhi in a single day. The company plans to deliver 1,000 e-scooters in 10 days to celebrate iQube's 1 lakh+ customer base – Positive.
 
·      MCX - The SEBI on Wednesday allowed stock exchanges to extend direct market access (DMA) facility to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) in exchange-traded commodity derivatives (ETCDs).- Positive
 
·      L&T - The Board of Directors decided to confer the status of Chairman Emeritus on Mr. A M Naik after he decided to step down as Non-Executive Chairman of the L&T Group at the end of his tenure on 30th September 2023. The Board of Directors also appointed Mr. S N Subrahmanyan as Chairman and Managing Director with effect from October 1, 2023. He is currently the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of the Company. – We are long term positive Open / Comment