Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research – 27 May 2022 REVENU | HLeBroking

Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research – 27 May 2022

REVENUE: Here comes the opportunity

One off event. Following the Shariah compliance review yesterday, REVENUE, which cash-to-asset ratio currently stands at 51.4% (vs Shariah-compliance threshold: 33%), will be excluded from the Shariah compliant list. Although the 54% YTD plunge could have grossly reflected the negative news, we reckon there might still be a knee-jerk sell down today. That being said, any sharp pullback in REVENUE prices will be temporary as it is driven by one-off factor. Evidently, YINSON and PENTA, who both experienced a knee-jerk sell-down (Figure# 1&2) when they were excluded from the Shariah list back in 2019 and 2021 recovered 80% of the losses in fewer than 25 trading days. Hence, any potential sell-down is deemed to be an opportunity to accumulate.

The strong ETP segment. In 3QFY22, REVENUE’s ETP segment is growing strong (YoY: +146%), offsetting the lower EDC sales as one of the groups online merchandise customer’s sales recovered strongly with average size per transaction growing c.5%. For the uninitiated, under the ETP segment, all electronic payments, whether by EDC terminals, e-commerce/mobile commerce or QR payments processed via the revPAY platform, REVENUE will get a share of it. With the use of e-wallets having grown significantly (online and offline) post-pandemic, this bodes well for REVENUE’s ETP and EDC business. Still, as cash transactions still take a big chunk of transaction-type market shares, there is ample room for REVENUE’s ETP and EDC to grow going forward.*l

The long-awaited comeback. After Malaysia reopens the international border in 1QFY22, the volume of inbound tourists is set to recover gradually. This will further lift the group’s ETP revenue as REVENUE provides ETP services to world-renowned payment schemes, including Alipay, UnionPay, JCB, NETS and more.

Grab that opportunity. In anticipation of a potential knee-jerk sell down, we expect REVENUE to correct to RM0.96 (base case) follow by RM0.90 (worst case) levels, which provide a golden opportunity for investor to nibble. Benchmarking against PENTA and YINSON share prices’ performance after being excluded from the Shariah list, we reckon buying in the first day dump is the most lucrative strategy. Cut loss at RM0.82.

Collection range: RM0.90-0.92-0.96

Upside targets: RM1.06-1.12-1.16

Cut: RM0.82

————————————

REVENUE: 逢低买入的机会

突发事件。在昨天的伊斯兰教法合规审查之后，现金与资产比率目前为 51.4%（相对于伊斯兰教法合规门槛：33%）的 REVENUE 将被排除在伊斯兰教义股名单之外。尽管年初至今股价已经暴跌 54% （反映了负面消息），但我们认为今天仍有下跌的可能性。话虽如此，REVENUE任何大幅回落都会是短暂的，这是因为这次的负面消息是由一次性因素驱动的。显然，YINSON 和 PENTA 在 2019 年和 2021 年被排除在伊斯兰教义股名单之外时股价都遭到了抛售（图 1 和 2），但都在不到 25 个交易日内收复了 80% 的跌幅。因此，这一次的抛售都可视为积累的机会。

强大的 ETP 市场。在 22 财年第三季度，REVENUE 的 ETP 部门增长强劲（同比：+146%），抵消了较低的 EDC 销售额，因为集团在线商品客户的销售额实现强劲复苏，且平均每笔交易规模增长约 5%。在 ETP 领域，所有电子支付通过revPAY 平台，EDC 终端、电子商务/移动商务还是二维码支付，REVENUE 都将分得一杯羹。随着疫情大流行后电子钱包的使用（在线和下线）显着增长，这对 REVENUE 的 ETP 和 EDC 业务来说是个好兆头。尽管如此，由于现金交易仍占交易类市场份额的很大一部分，因此 REVENUE 的 ETP 和 EDC 仍有充足的增长空间。

期待已久的回归。马来西亚在 22 财年第一季度重新开放国际边境后，入境游客量将逐步恢复。这将进一步提升集团的 ETP 收入，因为 REVENUE 为支付宝、银联、JCB、NETS 等全球知名支付方案提供 ETP 服务。

抓住机会。由于预期可能会遭到抛售，我们预计 REVENUE 将回调至 RM0.96 （基本情况），然后是 RM0.90 （最坏情况）水平，这为投资者提供了一个买入机会。以 PENTA 和 YINSON 被排除在伊斯兰教义名单后的股价表现为基准，我们认为在第一天的抛售中买入是最有利可图的策略。投资者可把止损设置于 RM0.82。

买入范围：RM0.90-0.92-0.96

上行目标：RM1.06-1.12-1.16

止损：RM0.82

Please join us on HLeBroking telegram channel: https://t.me/joinchat/qaZOqmjEU0k4ZGVl

DISCLAIMER: https://www.hlebroking.com/v3/disclaimer.aspx