Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research – 7 June 2022 DAYANG | HLeBroking
Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research – 7 June 2022
DAYANG: Turning the corner
OGSE players may play catch-up. Following the enormous surge in share price of E&P (exploration and production) players YTD (HIBISCUS: 59%; DNEX: 30%), the OGSE (Oil & Gas services and equipment) players, whose returns have been relatively lackluster may return to the limelight. Referring to the 2016-2018 O&G bull run cycle, the OGSE players could play catch-up (Figure#1) after the rally in E&P players amid the recovery of capex spending from oil majors, underpinned by an improving earnings recovery outlook.
Petronas’ robust earnings. To recap, Petronas recorded a stellar 1Q22 core profit of RM21.2bn – its best-ever performance in the last decade mainly due to higher average realized product prices amidst elevated oil prices. In anticipation of a high oil price in the near-term (HLIB 2022 Brent oil forecast: USD100-110/brl) and improving PETRONAS’s operating cash flow, we project PETRONAS’s capex spending to increase further to RM40-45bn (vs FY21: RM30bn) annually over the next five years. This will support OGPE players to recover going forward.
Better days ahead. Despite 75% (3 out of 4) of the HLIB-covered OGSE players posted below/within earnings expectations in 1Q22, DAYANG outperformed its peers by recording a strong core profit of RM13.8m (vs -24.5m 1QFY21) despite being a seasonally weak quarter. We reckon that the strong earnings momentum will improve further for the next few quarters, underpinned by improved job orders due to lesser Covid-19 related restrictions and expenses, as well as improved projected blended vessel utilization rates YoY for Perdana Petroleum in FY22.
Double bottom breakout. Technically, DAYANG is pending for a double bottom breakout. A successful breakout above the RM1.01 neckline will indicate a downtrend reversal and spur the stock price toward RM1.13-1.15-1.25 zones. Cut loss at RM0.94.
Collection range: RM0.96-0.98-1.00
Upside targets: RM1.13-1.15-1.25
Cut: RM0.94
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DAYANG：转角处
OGSE 将会迎头赶上。 随着 E&P（勘探和生产）年初至今股价大幅上涨（HIBISCUS：59%；DNEX：30%），回报相对低迷的 OGSE（石油和天然气服务和设备）参与者可能会重返 风头。 参考 2016-2018 年的 O&G 牛市周期，在石油巨头资本支出恢复的情况下，在 E&P 参与者大幅上涨后，OGSE 参与者会迎头赶上，这得益于盈利复苏前景的改善。
国油强劲的盈利。 回顾一下，Petronas 在 2022 年第一季度的核心利润达到 212 亿令吉，这是过去十年来的最佳表现，主要是因油价上涨导致平均实现产品价格上涨。 鉴于近期油价将保持高位（HLIB 2022 布伦特原油预测：100-110 美元/brl）并改善Petronas的经营现金流，我们预计马石油的资本支出在接下来的五年中将进一步增加至 40-450 亿令吉（21 财年：300 亿令吉）。 这将支持 OGPE 在未来的恢复。
未来会有更好的日子。 尽管 HLIB 覆盖的 OGSE 参与者中有 75%（4 人中有 3 人）在 1Q22 的盈利预期低于/在预期之内，但 DAYANG 的表现优于同行，录得 1380 万令吉的强劲核心利润（2021 财年第 1 季度为 -2450 万令吉），尽管是季节性的 弱季度。 我们认为，该强劲的盈利势头在未来几个季度将进一步改善，这得益于因 Covid-19 相关的限制减少使工作订单增加，以及 Perdana Petroleum 在 22 财年的预计混合船舶利用率同比提高。
双底突破。 DAYANG正等待双底突破。 若DAYANG成功突破 RM1.01 颈线将表明下跌趋势反转，并有望将股价推向 RM1.13-1.15-1.25 区域。 投资者可将止损点设在RM0.94.
买入范围：RM0.96-0.98-1.00
上行目标：RM1.13-1.15-1.25
止损点：RM0.94
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