Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research –2 Aug 2022 DNEX: Ro | HLeBroking
Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research –2 Aug 2022
DNEX: Rough diamond
Undemanding valuation. Weighed by the global technology stock sell-down and the imposition of an additional 25% windfall tax to oil and gas producers in the British North Sea, DNEX share price has corrected 38.3% from a 52-week high of RM1.33 to RM0.82 yesterday. With this, DNEX is currently trading at an undemanding 11.9x FY23 P/E, which is 65% lower than KLTEC’s 5-year average of 34.2x. This discount is unwarranted in our view, given DNEX being the only listed-co on Bursa Malaysia involved in both E&P and wafer manufacturing (Oil+Tech proxy). As such, we advocate buying on dip with a fair value of RM1.69.
Growth remains intact. While the additional 25% windfall tax to oil and gas producers in the British North sea will impact Ping Petroleum in the way of higher tax expenses, the impact will be partially offset by the new 80% investment allowance (#Figure1; source). On top of that, factors such as higher oil prices (upcoming review period average: USD112 vs 2QFY22 realized prices: USD103.1) and the depreciating ringgit (upcoming review period average: 4.35 vs 3QFY22: 4.19) will partially offset the higher taxes as well. On Siltera, ASPs per mask layer is anticipated to stay on a rising trajectory, and management expects it to hit USD25 by the end of 2022 (vs 3QFY22: USD23.6) due to the ongoing chip shortage. Thus, after considering the abovementioned factors, we think DNEX is on track to post commendable earnings.
In the next couple of years, we are even more excited and upbeat about DNEX’s prospects, underpinned by (i) the commercialisation of the Avalone field and (ii) Siltera’s new capacity kicks in. The former will quadruple Ping Petroleum’s current output in FY25, while the latter will increase Siltera’s capacity to 10m mask layers in FY23 (from 8.8m mask now) for emerging technology whose ASPs is 3x higher than their core products. All in, we are projecting DNEX’s core net profit to register a strong FY22-24 CAGR of 18%.
Pending a rectangle breakout. Technically, DNEX is poised for a rectangle breakout after hovering near its strong support area of RM0.75-0.76. A successful breakout above RM0.83 will spur the prices toward RM0.91-1.00-1.10 level, creating a new uptrend leg. Cut loss at RM0.70.
Collection range: RM 0.76-0.78-0.82
Upside targets: RM 0.91-1.00-1.10
Cut: RM 0.70
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DNEX：隐秘的钻石
估值不高。受全球科技股抛售以及对英国北海油气生产商征收额外 25% 暴利税的拖累，DNEX 股价已从 52 周高点 RM1.33修正 38.3% 至 RM0.82。因此，DNEX 目前的交易价格为FY23 市盈率11.9 倍，比 KLTEC 的 5 年平均值 34.2 倍低 65%。我们认为这个折扣是不合理的，因为 DNEX 是唯一一家在大马交易所上市的公司同时涉及勘探与生产和晶圆制造（Oil+Tech 代理）的公司。因此，HLIB Research给于RM 1.69的合理价，并推荐逢低买入。
增长保持不变。虽然英国对北海的石油和天然气生产商征收的额外 25% 的暴利税将影响 Ping Petroleum 的税收支出增加，但该影响将被新的 80% 投资免税额部分抵消。除此之外，油价上涨（即将到来的审查期平均值：USD112 vs 3QFY22 实际价格：USD103.1）和令吉贬值（即将到来的审查期平均值：4.35 vs 3QFY22：4.19）等因素将部分抵消较高的税收。在 Siltera 方面，每个晶片掩膜版层的 ASP 预计将保持上升趋势，由于持续的芯片短缺，管理层预计到 2022 年底将达到 25 美元（22 财年第二季度：23.6 美元）。因此，在考虑上述因素后，我们认为 DNEX 有望发布可喜的业绩。
在接下来的几年里，我们对 DNEX 的前景更乐观，这得益于（i）Avalone 油田的开跑和（ii）Siltera 的新产能启动。前者将使 Ping Petroleum 在 FY25 的当前产量翻两倍，而后者将在 23 财年将 Siltera 的 晶片掩膜版层产能从现在的 880 万层增加到 1000 万层， ASP 比其核心产品高 3 倍。总而言之，我们预计 DNEX 的核心净利润将录得FY22-24 复合年增长率18% 。
等待矩形突破。从技术上讲，DNEX 在 RM0.75-0.76 的强劲支撑区域附近徘徊后准备突破矩形形态。股价若成功突破 RM0.83 将推动价格向 RM0.91-1.00-1.10 水平，开启上升趋势。投资者可把止损设置于 RM0.70。
买入范围：RM 0.76-0.78-0.82
上行目标：RM 0.91-1.00-1.10
止损：RM 0.70
report: https://www.hlib.hongleong.com.my/Published/Download.ashx?ArticleId=19093&mode=view
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