Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research –17 Aug 2022 DAYANG: | HLeBroking

Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research –17 Aug 2022

DAYANG: Slowly but surely

Anticipating a strong set of numbers in 2Q-3QFY22. We gather that OSV charter rates have increased approximately 3-5% YoY amid sliding OSVs in the market over the years following the slump in oil prices from 2015-2020. We are optimistic that the group’s 63.7%-owned Perdana Pertroleum will turn into the black in 3QFY22. We also expect the group’s blended fleet utilisation rates for its OSV segment to increase significantly to 60-65% in 2Q22 (from 38% in 1Q22). Also, from the published Petronas Activity Outlook 2022, the outlook for OSVs is expected to mildly improve in 2022 with a total of 336 support vessels to be chartered throughout the year (vs. a total of 289 support vessels in 2021) while higher MCM and HUC man-hours are also expected for 2022 (HUC: 6.3; MCM: 11.5) as compared to 2021 (HUC: 4.7; MCM: 8.5). Hence, we reckon DAYANG is on track to post a commendable 2Q-3Q22 results.

OGSE players may play catch-up. Despite improving earnings outlook, DAYANG’s share price has been lacklustre, registering a -16.5% return since the oil price bull run (vs E&P players such as DNEX: +295% and HIBISCUS: +47%). In our view, the distinctive performance between E&P and OGSE (O&G services and equipment) players was mainly due to the lag effect in recognising the earnings from booming oil prices, given that the latter depends on the oil majors’ capex cycles.

Nevertheless, we stress that OGSE players will play catch-up once the capex spending recovers, evidenced by the 2016-2018 O&G bull run cycle, where the OGSE players played a catch-up (Figure#1) after the rally in E&P players amid the recovery of capex spending from oil majors due to earnings recovery outlook. While timing a perfect entry point may be challenging, we note that the oil majors’ capex spending has been recovering steadily after a bump in 2020 (Figure#2). As such, we expect OGSE players will again capture the limelight, and we reiterate a buy-on-weakness on DAYANG.

Pending an ascending triangle breakout. Technically, DAYANG is forming an ascending triangle, signalling a potential new up-trend leg to happen. A successful breakout above the RM1.01 neckline will spur the price toward RM1.10-1.19 area. Cut loss at RM0.86.

Collection range: RM 0.95-0.96-0.97

Upside targets: RM 1.05-1.10-1.19

Cut: RM 0.86

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Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research –17 Aug 2022

DAYANG: 稳定增长

预计 2Q-3QFY22 会有强劲的表现。我们认为在 2015-2020 年油价暴跌之后，并随着 OSV 的下滑，OSV 的租船费率按年增长了约 3-5%。我们乐观地认为，该集团持股 63.7% 的 Perdana Pertroleum 将在 22 财年第三季度扭亏为盈。我们预计，2022 年第二季度该集团的 OSV 业务的混合船队利用率将显着提高至 60-65%（从 22 年第一季度的 38%）。此外，根据已发布的 Petronas 2022 年活动展望，预计 OSV 的前景将在 2022 年略有改善，全年将租用 336 艘支持船（2021 年为 289 艘支持船）， MCM 与 2021 年（HUC：4.7；MCM：8.5）相比，预计 2022 年的 HUC 工时将达到（HUC：6.3；MCM：11.5）。因此，我们认为DAYANG有望在 2Q22-3Q22 发布令人满意的业绩。

OGSE参与者可能会迎头赶上。尽管盈利前景有所改善，但DAYANG的股价一直乏善可陈，尽管油价在过去不断上涨，但是DAYANG的股价回报率为 -16.5%（相比DNEX：+295% 和 HIBISCUS：+47%）。我们认为，E&P 和 OGSE（O&G 服务和设备）参与者之间的鲜明的表现主要是由于油价上涨带来的收益存在滞后效应，因为后者取决于石油巨头的资本支出周期。

尽管如此，我们强调，一旦资本支出恢复，OGSE 参与者将迎头赶上，2016-2018 年 O&G 牛市周期就是最好的证明，OGSE 参与者在 E&P 上涨后跟随（图 1），主要提振于盈利复苏以及石油巨头的资本支出恢复。虽然要确定一个完美切入点的时机可能具有挑战性，但我们注意到石油巨头的资本支出在 2020 年一直在稳步复苏（图 2）。因此，我们预计 OGSE 参与者将再次成为焦点，我们重申对 DAYANG 的买入评级。

等待上升三角形突破。从技术而言，DAYANG正在形成一个上升三角形形态，预示着可能出现新的上升趋势。股价若成功突破 RM1.01 颈线将推动价格向 RM1.10-1.19 区域发展。投资者可把止损设置在 RM0.86。

买入范围：RM 0.95-0.96-0.97

上行目标：RM 1.05-1.10-1.19

止损：RM 0.86

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