Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research –26 Aug 2022 ASTRO: | HLeBroking
Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research –26 Aug 2022
ASTRO: Grossly oversold
The infection point. Weighed by the illegal TV box piracy and intense competition from Unifi TV and streaming service (i.e Netflix and Disney+), ASTRO's subscription revenue (>70% of revenue contribution) experienced tremendous pressure and has been on a declining trend since 2018. As a result, ASTRO's share price slid 61% from 2018's peak of RM2.10 to RM0.84 yesterday, tracking the falling household penetration rate from a peak of c.77% to c.71% in 1Q23.
While the outlook for ASTRO's TV operation remains challenging, several key developments were implemented by the authorities may bode well for the group. For instance, the enforcement of the Copyright (Amendment) Act 2022 will help to reduce the number of illegal TV boxes being used and sold as it allows ASTRO to take legal action against illegal TV Box sellers and distributors of its content. Also, the launch of its broadband services and becoming a streaming service aggregator at the same time enables ASTRO to provide a similar value proposition as TM in the way of one-bill convenience and additional cost savings from the bundles.
Advertising segment. Astro's advertising revenue was also cannibalized by the advent of Facebook and Google, which collectively took up an estimated 80% of digital adex share in Malaysia. That said, we note that advertisers are increasingly adopting an omnichannel advertising approach (a method where advertisers do not just advertise through online platforms but also through traditional media platforms to widen their audience reach) which will benefit the local media players. We also note that the ROI gap on ad spend on Facebook and Google vs ASTRO has substantially narrowed over the years following Malaysia introducing a 6% digital tax on foreign digital services providers in 2020. Furthermore, with ASTRO launching addressable advertising in 2022, allowing it to serve targeted ads to different customer segments based on their profiles, this ROI gap is anticipated to narrow further.
Limited downside amid grossly oversold level. Technically, ASTRO is grossly oversold with indicators on the mend. A successful breakout above RM0.86 will spur the price toward RM0.88-0.92-0.94 level. Cut loss at RM0.79.
Collection range: RM0.81-0.83-0.85
Upside targets: RM0.88-0.92-0.94
Cut: RM0.79
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ASTRO：严重超卖阶段
转折点。受非法电视盒盗版以及来自 Unifi TV 和流媒体服务（即 Netflix 和 Disney+）的激烈竞争的拖累，ASTRO 的订阅收入（占收入贡献的 70% 以上）承受了巨大压力，自 2018 年以来一直呈下降趋势。因此，ASTRO 的股价从 2018 年的峰值RM 2.10下跌 61% 至昨天的 RM0.84，家庭渗透率从 23 年第一季度的峰值约 77% 下降至约 71%。
虽然 ASTRO 电视业务的前景仍然充满挑战，但当局实施的几项关键发展可能对该集团来说是个好兆头。例如，《2022 年版权（修正）法》的实施将有助于减少非法电视盒的使用和销售数量，因为它允许 ASTRO 对其内容的非法电视盒销售商和分销商采取法律行动。此外，其宽带服务的推出并同时成为流媒体服务聚合商，使 ASTRO 能够提供与 TM 类似的服务，即一张账单的便利性和较便宜的价格。
广告板块。 Astro 的广告收入也因 Facebook 和 Google 的出现而被蚕食，这两家公司共同占据了马来西亚数字 adex 市场约 80% 的份额。尽管如此，我们注意到广告商开始采用全渠道广告方式（广告商不仅通过在线平台做广告，还通过传统媒体平台扩大受众范围），这将有利于本地媒体。我们还注意到，随着马来西亚于 2020 年对外国数字服务提供商征收 6% 的数字税，多年来 Facebook 和谷歌与 ASTRO 广告支出的投资回报率差距已大大缩小。此外，随着 ASTRO 在 2022 年推出可寻址电视广告服务，允许其根据消费者的个人资料向不同的客户群提供有针对性的广告，预计这种投资回报率差距将进一步缩小。
在严重超卖的情况下，下行空间有限。从技术上讲，ASTRO 处于严重超卖阶段，技术指标正在好转。股价若成功突破 RM0.86 将推动价格升至 RM0.88-0.92-0.94 水平。投资者可把止损 设置在RM0.79。
买入范围：RM0.81-0.83-0.85
上行目标：RM0.88-0.92-0.94
止损：RM0.79
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