Humble Trader's Diary️

2021-09-05 19:00:42 Open / Comment

2021-09-05 18:53:30 Open / Comment

2021-09-05 18:40:27 When in doubt buy


In our previous reports, we have argued for low crash risk at least until November this year. The uptrend from April was expected to have a minimum shelf life until then. After an extreme neglect of large caps by midJuly and exuberance in micro caps, a reversion of trade was underway. A bull market shakeout unfolded in small caps while large caps camouflaged it at the index level. The small caps and broader market shakeout was contained at the ripe bull market threshold, repeating the previous two mean reversions from where returns turned robust. In short, when in doubt buy has been proved right again

False negatives during early years

We have repeatedly said the early few years of a new bull market will have a plethora of “false negatives”, which fails to yield the intended bearish outcome. The fact is when the real bear market begins after many years, nobody will have a clue; either one will be too early or too late

Signs from EM equity and currency trends

The primary message from us is to look at the scope of sizeable projections for the latest Nifty uptrend. What are some macro tailwinds from EM equities and currency trends appearing on charts signaling a favorable backdrop for robust targets over the next 4-6 months or 6-8 months. In this message, we are not discussing the micro (stocks & sectors) as we focus to scope the market upside.

EM ex-China: game-changer

The turbulence in China has been accompanied by resilience in EM ex-China trends. This trend is poised currently at a good launchpad for a durable takeoff. While India has 11.6% weight in the MSCI EM Index, the weight goes up to 17.4% for the ex-China version. This can be a catalyst for India flows.

Dollar trips after short squeeze

The current relaunch of the EM bull market is accompanied by stalled trends in the US dollar. The recent push to 93.73 for DXY is mostly the top of the US dollar recovery. The retail shorts panicked at this fakeout, forcing them to cover all their shorts. During the early part of the year, we had highlighted the entire planet was short on the US dollar. The bearish consensus has now fully reversed. This could well be the ripe point where the US dollar downtrend could begin.

INR starts new outperformance trend with Asian currencies

The new trajectory of outperformance for India’s equities over EM equities is now joined by a new trend of outperformance in the INR. The past two years’ underperformance of the INR with Asian currencies is currently reversed, signaling increased probability of a new uptrend with prospects of a 5-6% appreciation first

The ship is just beginning to sail for the next voyage

We are only seven days away from an internal oversold in the market. The current rally is preceded by a “running correction and/or consolidation” platform of nearly six months. As a rule of thumb, it could mean shelf life of at least six months for this uptrend. The ship is just beginning to sail for a new and different kind of voyage hereafter. Medium-term target of 19600 and long-term targets of 24400 are not unrealistic. Open / Comment

2021-09-05 18:24:33 Those who gave me portfolio to analyse, sorry I couldnt find time to do it today. I am busy in a project of mine. As well as analysing new investment opportunities. Open / Comment

2021-09-05 17:24:18 Investment Rationale

V-Guard Industries makes consumer electrical and electronics products. The company's product range includes voltage stabilizers, inverter, electric & solar water heaters, fans, kitchen appliances, pumps, wires & cables, domestic switch gears, air coolers, etc.

During FY21, the company has launched several new products such as water purifiers, breakfast appliances, kitchen hobs and chimneys through online channels that saw an encouraging response from customers. The categories of hoods & hobs and breakfast appliances are completely outsourced at present; the Company will consider investing in manufacturing capabilities once revenues expand to more substantial levels.

The Company continued to expand distribution presence, while launching several new products and driving greater focus on online engagement with customers. The company's work force has shown a lot of deep resolve to keep the wheels turning throughout this period to deliver the best-possible outcomes.

The festive season tends to be big for the industry and V-Guard too is hopeful for a strong season. Even January to March is another big period the company is eying.

Focus on tight cost control throughout this period resulted in operating leverage despite rising raw material pressures. The learning from such costrelated implementations may be expected to drive longer-term benefits as the situation returns to normal over time.

According to the management, in the context of demand constraints, its Electricals and Durables segments have performed well. Commodity cost inflation has been significant in the recent months. While the company has been able to offset a major part of it, some more pricing actions are being planned. It expects the business to bounce back strongly in the coming quarters.

Risk

1. Competition
2. Slowdown in Economy Open / Comment

2021-09-05 17:20:50 Vguard swing

Buy at cmp. 250
Sl 230 on weekly closing basis

Targets 261,278, 296, 302 Open / Comment

2021-09-05 15:05:39 Freak trades. What are they? How to be protected from them? Open / Comment

2021-09-05 11:25:39 Teachers day discount

Join the training programme for 7999 only . Not 8999. Discounted price.


Valid for today only.

http://wa.me/+919932986470

@contactadmin10 Open / Comment

2021-09-05 08:01:12 Open / Comment