You asked - Merry Christmas.
Here is a tale of the tape for Excess Biden Votes based on trend analysis in the modern political era, considering population growth/decline, recent voter history, and registration information, including registration by party.
My estimates are always lenient, and do not account for cyber flipping of votes.
Trump won: PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, GA, MN
Likely/Possible Trump if cyber flipping occurring: NM, VA, CO, NJ, NH
Closer than you thought: WA, OR, RI, CT, HI
