While searching for hard economic analysis to backup by theory | Jared Tate

While searching for hard economic analysis to backup by theory food will 3-5x by this time next year I found this report by US Congressional Research Service: Farm-to-Food Price Dynamics

Economic analysis of farm-to-retail price transmission leads to three generalizations: first,
causality usually runs from changes in farm prices to changes in retail prices; second, time lags in
retail price response to farm price changes are generally months in length, even for perishables
like milk, meat, and fresh fruits and vegetables; and third, retail prices appear to respond
asymmetrically, with adjustments to increases in farm prices occurring faster and with greater
pass-through than adjustments to decreases in farm prices. This last generalization is often
referred to as “sticky” retail food prices—that is, retail prices follow commodity prices upward
rapidly, but fall back only slowly and partially when commodity prices recede.


"For example, the rise in farm prices that
occurred between 2006 and mid-2008 was substantially larger and occurred about six months
earlier than the rise in corresponding retail food product prices"

So if we are seeing 2-3x planting inpust costs to farmers planting now in May, we will see the corresponding prices in grocery store 6 months later. (October) Not including further fuel cost increases by then for transportation to stores. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R40621.pdf