Bullet Hole There is nothing more deceptive than an obviou | Human Nature

Bullet Hole

There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact. We identify the wrong cause because it seems the obvious one based on a single observed effect. Obviousness is always the enemy to correctness. We tend to ignore alternatives, and therefore we fail to make appropriate comparisons. Often we only consider information or evidence that is presented or available and don't consider that information may be missing. What works in one situation may fail in another.

Often the same attributes are used to explain both success and failure. For example, when a company is successful, the media say that it is because of its focus and great leadership. When performance goes down, they report that the company became less focused and its leadership deteriorated. While there may be evidence that the company is less focused or has worse leadership than before, it could just as well be that the competition has gotten better. Business performance is relative, not absolute. The performance of a business is always influenced by what its competitors do. Even if a company gets better in many areas, market share and profits may decline if the competition does things even better. And even if a company gets worse in many areas, market share and profits may increase if competition does things even worse.

"Look at where the bullet holes are and put extra armor every place else. " During World War II, the statistician Abraham Wald tried to determine where one should add extra armor to airplanes. Based on the patterns of bullet holes in returning airplanes, he suggested that the parts not hit should be protected with extra armor. How could he reach that conclusion? Because he also considered planes that didn't return. Assume that all planes had been hit more or less uniformly. Some planes hit in marked areas were still able to return. This means that planes that didn't return were most likely hit somewhere else - in unmarked places. These were the areas that needed more armor.

Sometimes, in fact most times, we just have to think counter-intuitively to what our normal human nature is prone to. This is the secret of great generals and successful entrepreneurs and persons, Seeking Anomaly, neglecting the bullet hole, ignoring the obvious, disregarding the convinent, desire for alternatives.

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