​​Telegram channels are a black box Using a coin toss to dete | Professor M

​​Telegram channels are a black box

Using a coin toss to determine whether to post an entry helped me to peek inside the black box that a telegram channel is. In particular, I got a better grasp of the forces affecting the number of subscribers.

The number of subscribers would consistently drop after a new post. Why? The count responds to two processes: (1) the inflow of new subscribers and (2) the outflow of existing subscribers.

Unless someone immediately shares your new entry, it does not affect the inflow of new subscribers. However, a new entry reminds existing subscribers about the channel’s existence. As such, if the post is not in line with what they want, they may choose to unsubscribe. In the absence of new entries, they would have stuck around for longer. (But, as a party host, do you want guests who don’t enjoy being there?)

This dynamic almost obeys the laws of physics. When you boil water, it’s a given that the number of H20 molecules in the pot at the end of the process would be lower.

But the boiling analogy is not as rich. Boiling drops the number of water molecules in the short term and the long term. New entries reduce the number of subscribers in the short term—but in the long term, they have a shot of bringing in new subscribers. In fact, it is impossible to have reliable growth in the long term without risking losses in the short term.

No pain, no gain.