2022-06-24 13:00:33
Ladies and gentlemen, let me walk you through some numbers here.
According to the latest records from IEBC, these are the votes per region
Rift Valley - 5.34m
Central - 3.1m
Nyanza - 3.1m
Nairobi - 2.41m
Western - 2.2m
Coast - 1.96m
Ukambani - 1.69m
Upper Eastern - 1.59m
North Eastern - 0.63m
Now, let's say Raila manages to retain Western, Coast, Ukambani and Nyanza and Ruto retains Rift valley, Central and Upper Eastern.
That will be...
Rift Valley + Central + Upper Eastern = 10.03m votes for Ruto
Nyanza + Ukambani + Coast + Western = 8.95 votes for Raila.
Let's ko tipa...yes... let's go deeper and say candidates end up eating into each other's stronghold...
Let's say Ruto only manages to scoop...
- 500k votes from Nyanza (from Kisii and Kuria voters)
- 1m votes from Western (from voters in Bungoma, Vihiga and Kakamega)
- 500k from Coast (from Lamu, Tana River, Kilifi and Taita)
- 300k votes from Ukambani (from Kitui, Makueni and Machakos)
That's 2.3m votes.
Balance (8.95 - 2.3) = 6.65m votes for Raila
Let's say Raila also manages to scoop...
- 1m votes from Rift Valley (from Turkana, maasai and Kikuyus)
- 500k from Central (from Kiambu and expatriates)
- 300k from Upper Eastern (from Meru etc)
That's 1.8m votes
Balance (10.03 - 1.8 ) = 8.23m votes for Ruto.
Now let's revisit Nairobi and North Eastern.
Raila won Nairobi by 50.8% and miserably lost in North Eastern. But for the purposes of this argument, we'll give him both regions.
Raila gets 1.4m against Ruto's 1m in Nairobi
Raila gets 400k vs Ruto's 200k in North Eastern
Ruto ends up with 9.34m votes
Raila gets 8.45m votes.
That's to say that even if we gave Raila Nyanza, Western, Nairobi, Coast, Ukambani and North Eastern, he'll still lose to Ruto by a whopping 890k votes.
But that's not the reality on the ground...
The reality is that Raila is most likely to lose in Western, Coast, Nairobi and North Eastern.
Now you understand why they had to call a crisis meeting!
It's not about how to win, it's about how to lose with some dignity.
As one ODMlet puts it, the only way Raila defeats Ruto is if Ruto fails to get 50% of the votes in Rift Valley and Mt. Kenya. Which is akin to expecting Raila to get less than 50% in Siaya.
Anyway, we hope this was scientific enough to save you from rolling on the tarmac in August!
210 viewsBoboh, 10:00
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