POV: The Global Internet might not survive this confliсt The | USSR 2.0

POV: The Global Internet might not survive this confliсt

There has been much debate over the years about the likelihood of a ‘splinternet’ and so-called ‘balkanization’ or fragmentation of the global Internet. A key concern has been that the “open, globally connected Internet we all use splinters into a collection of fragmented networks controlled by governments or corporations”.

Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia and China were, for instance, already negotiating for a “new, top-down internet protocol that would give internet providers the ability to block any website or app”, raising concerns that ambitions could lead to an Internet of different networks divided along national borders, where governments could control imported Internet content. A key reason for why such splintering has not yet comprehensively come about is mainly states’ strategic self-interest to remain connected, while working to nudge the status quo to suit their ambitions.

Last month, the White House issued its starkest warning yet that “evolving” intelligence indicates Moscow is planning major cyber operations against the United States in retaliation for the economic penalties that the country has imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. It may only be a matter of time before these warnings become a reality.

But the United States also cannot let a significant cyberattack against its critical infrastructure go unanswered. While U.S. military strategy dictates that it does not need to limit a response to a cyberattack to the cyber domain, this situation might be one of the instances when an initial response in cyberspace might be appropriate.

One such measured response could be a cyber operation that causes a widespread disruption to Internet service across Russia. Even though some analysts argue that such measures would not cause permanent damage, it actually would.

First, this would create a precedent and push an escalatory spiral of symmetric responses and legitimize such measures as a tool of hybrid war

From a technology perspective, this would require a certain disruptions in infrastructure and operations that might cause irreparable damage to existing global infrastructure

This would be the end of multistakeholder governance of the Internet meaning that naturally protected a neutrality of underlying Internet infrastructure

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