While America and China are engaging in huge rows over Hong Ko | Policy Wonk

While America and China are engaging in huge rows over Hong Kong and Taiwan it is noteworthy to remember a recent book “The Senkaku Paradox. Risking Great Power War Over Small Stakes” by Brookings Institution fellow Michael O’Hanlon. O'Hanlon writes that due to many alliances the US has a very high risk of being drawn into the military action for low stakes problem and therefore proposes to supplement and replace military obligations with commitments to engage in economic war. If this is the mainstream Washington thinking, such proliferation of sanctions and trade disputes without any military consequences is the likeliest future scenario in Asia.

Writing from the American perspective, O’Hanlon states that Washington is dangerously exposed to small local conflicts on the borders of China and Russia (however, conflicts in the Middle East can also be added to this list). The book takes its title from Senkaku islands that are uninhabitable islands in the East China see. They are currently claimed by Japan, thought historically China also lays claims on these islands. Being allied with Japan the US has obligations to involve in the military confrontation if China seizes one of the islands. However, risking a war with China over an uninhabitable island seems stupid to say the least.

Military conflict on the small territories such as sparsely inhabited islands or border-communities can draw America into the large scale military conflict due to it alliance obligations. As a result, Washington will be forced to choose between dropping its allies while suffering a loss of reputation and engaging in the conflict while completely destabilising the global order for nothing.

As O’Hanlon adresses his book primarily to American policy-makers, his recommendations serve for us as an insider view of the American foreign policy thinking. O’Hanlon writes that in order to get out of the Senkaku trap, US has to concentrate its alliance obligations on economic and not military warfare. If his insights are correct and widely adopted, America will use a wide array of sanctions over low stakes conflict but is unlikely to escalate any further.

As a result, we are likely to see more sanctions, trade wars and other methods of economic wars embraced in Washington, however in everything regarding military presence in Asia US seems not to present a credible threat to China.

https://www.brookings.edu/book/the-senkaku-paradox/