Thoughts on the game theory of Armenia Azerbaijan conflict. | Policy Wonk

Thoughts on the game theory of Armenia Azerbaijan conflict.

The main book on conflicts is still Thomas Schelling’s “Strategy of conflict” in which he develops an idea of a focal point. Focal point is basically a point of coordination accepted by all actors such as splitting the bill 50/50 if there are no other instructions.

One of the possible implications of the idea is that If one country attacks another, the defendant can usually retreat up to some point without compromising its security. For example, if the army retreats up to the main river which is a focal point — this is an equilibrium and the offender will not move forward. However, if the army retreats farther back, the focal point is passed and the whole country’s security is compromised.

The problem of contested regions such as Nagorno-Karabakh seems to be the shift in the focal point. Both countries know that the armed conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh does not fully compromise the security of Armenia and Azerbaijan (the focal point is not crossed). Therefore, for all the immense loss of human life and tragedy, the conflict can be perceived as cheap by warring parties and can be continued forever.

In this framework the possible solution is to make one of the parties “own” Nagorno-Karabakh so much, that it will perceive all armed conflicts as compromising security of the whole country.

I really hope that Armenia and Azerbaijan will achieve peace and the great human tragedy will stop. However, in order not to protract the conflict for another several decades, peacemakers should be bolder and finally define the concrete status of the region.