2023-06-09 18:25:43
"...Active hostilities are on the fifth day. Despite the failures of several major attacks in Zaporozhye, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have so far stuck to their plan, attacking in the same areas. However, there is reason to believe that the experience of unsuccessful attacks will be analyzed by the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the coming days and the actions of the ground forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will change. It is possible that reserves will be brought into battle, tactics will change, or a new sector of the front will be activated. The active phase of the offensive, announced as strikes along the entire front line, can last up to 10-15 days.
...In less than a week, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in all sectors of the offensive amount to about one reinforced battalion per day - 800-1000 people + equipment. Thus, during the five days of the offensive, the Ukrainian troops lost about 4-5 thousand people killed and wounded, that is, a reinforced mechanized brigade.
So far, data on the preparation of three army corps as an offensive reserve has not been confirmed. Units and formations that have already taken part in the defense of various sectors of the front are thrown into the offensive. Some units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for example, the 36th and 37th brigades of the Marine Corps (OBrMP), the 128th mountain assault brigade, abandoned in Zaporizhia, were twice withdrawn for resupply before the start of the offensive due to heavy losses.
The quality of mobilized recruits in these (and not only these) units is several times lower than before the start of the special operation, which directly affects the combat effectiveness of the formations.
What will the APU do next?
A series of attacks carried out in the Zaporozhye direction suggests that the Ukrainian army, despite the increased number of attacking units, continues to look for a gap in the defensive lines of the RF Armed Forces.
An attack in the same direction for each company-tactical group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (in total, about five of them can operate in the direction of the main strike at the moment) is carried out at least twice, after which reserves arrive at the site of the destroyed formation.
These reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not infinite, however, it will take time for them to be ground in attacks. The effectiveness of the actions of artillery and aviation of the RF Armed Forces in this case is at its best: in one night flight, the Ka-52 combat helicopter destroys five to seven targets, including tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. However, even under such conditions, the intensity of the battles remains high. In the coming days, the APU will intensify attacks.
How is the defensive line of the RF Armed Forces arranged?
The Russian defenses that we talked about earlier are built along the dominant heights and ridges. The defensive line consists of dozens of lines, echeloned to a depth of 25-30 km and covered by a significant number of engineering barriers.
At the moment, the main problem of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is that it is almost impossible to approach the first line of defense due to the presence of mines, the activity of artillery, aviation of the RF Armed Forces and the operation of electronic warfare systems that suppress communications and GPS navigation signals, as well as control channels drones.
The situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is aggravated by the fact that the Ukrainian military (for example, the 31st separate mechanized brigade), who are ambushed or under fire from artillery, requesting help through available communication channels, rush to the battlefield and actively surrender, which demotivates the reserves and negatively affects the effectiveness of the attack."
https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/18137
4.2K viewsYeva, edited 15:25
