Think election was only bad in swing states? Dive into blue state blues. Here is a 4 county selection from MD.
3 of 4 voted DJT in 2016. AA and Fred Co. are trending Dem in reg (noted on lefthand side), and when that happens you can expect a larger % of D victory or tighter margin of D defeat. Carroll trended slightly D but GOP still registered more in a county where R has huge Reg. advantage. Harford trended more R and should have been more favorable to DJT. On righthand side we have number of new reg voters in each.
AA – 7% pop growth since 2010, same amount of new RVs this year as 2016. 2016 gain for Ds was 2k voters. This year… 44k. They are about 22-32k over what could be expected even with D reg. advantage.
Fred – 11% growth since 2010, 22k new RVs. Trump went from winning by 2.4% to losing by 9.6%, Dems at least 12k over what could possibly be expected.
Carroll- <1% growth. 10k gain for Dems. Impossible.
Harford– 4% growth, fewer new RVs than 2016. Trump solid gain, Biden 16K! gain.
