Here is another factoid for your arsenal as to why 2020 must b | Seth spare

Here is another factoid for your arsenal as to why 2020 must be audited - GOP INCUMBENT STRENGTH

With exception of the re-election campaign of Bush 41 (why? Because he was running for a fourth straight GOP term, which messes with indicators and predictors for standard cycles)...

All four Republican presidents since WW2 have improved performance in PA and MI in their re-election campaigns. Eisenhower 1956, Nixon 1972, Reagan 1984, Bush 2004.

With exception of Bush 2004, WI and MN have also delivered bigger wins or tighter losses in this time frame. It is believed a large anti-war vote in MN and WI pushed those back left in 2004 (but maybe... ahem... something else?).

Bottom line: history indicated larger Trump victory margins in PA, MI, WI (that you saw unfolding on election night) and a likely flip of MN.