Planning fallacy It is a cognitive distortion associated with | Self Education

Planning fallacy

It is a cognitive distortion associated with optimism and underestimation of the time required to complete tasks. No matter what was planned, it takes longer to complete it than you expected.

In a 1994 study, 37 psychology students were asked to estimate how long it would take to complete their diplomas project. The average estimate was 33.9 days. The average actual turnaround time was 55.5 days; only about 30% of the students completed their work in the time they predicted.

Why is this happening?

- People focus on the most optimistic scenario, and do not fully use the experience of performing similar tasks.
- People think that the task will be completed quickly and easily, because that is what they want
- People do not always correctly remember the amount of time taken for similar tasks in the past
- People do not take into account unforeseen circumstances and new tasks that may appear in the process of performing

Original research - Link