Anuj Singhal CNBC Awaaz Managing Editor

2021-08-05 13:29:53 https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1423201848568160261?s=09 Open / Comment

2021-08-05 09:42:38 Hope people made money in Bharti. That has been a no brainer for me for last 10 days or so. Open / Comment

2021-08-05 05:52:43 https://www.cnbctv18.com/market/a-shallow-rally-but-market-at-record-high-whats-next-10256931.htm Open / Comment

2021-08-05 05:39:04 The Indian market played as per script yesterday. There was a second day of rally in large caps, a massive catch up play in Bank Nifty and a big decline was seen in the midcaps and Small Caps. Now, why do so many patterns play out over and over again in stock markets? That’s because ultimately Stock market is about 2 human emotions – greed and fear and despite the invasion of artificial intelligence and machine trading, these 2 human emotions still overrule everything else.

Now, what does anecdotal evidence tell us about today’s trade and the market action going forward? For starters, today is weekly expiry and the market is sitting on 2 days of back to back rally. However, yesterday’s rally was not as broad based as Tuesday’s. In fact 4 financial stocks contributed more than the rally itself on the Nifty. The market breadth was very poor, with 5 stocks declining for every 2 stocks rallying. Anecdotally, that has been a signal of some consolidation after 2 strong days of Index rally. The options data indicates some resistance at 16,300 and 16,350 on Nifty and 36,250-36,300 on Bank Nifty. However, given the momentum, if the Indices take these levels out, a further upmove cannot be ruled out though that’s not the base case for today.

The Bank Nifty has played a big catch up to Nifty after the recent underperformance and the question everyone seems to be asking now is that if Vodafone Idea is emerging as a risk to the Bank Nifty rally. On that, my view is very simple – Was the market unaware of a potential default by Idea as a risk? Absolutely not. Can any potential Idea default derail the Banking system completely? Absolutely not. There are 2-3 banks for which it’s a large exposure and the market has discounted a worst case scenario already.

What about the large cap vs midcap action after yesterday’s move? Well it’s entirely possible that midcaps see some more profit taking, especially given the stupendous rally of this year but once again if you go by the anecdotal evidence of bull markets, these moves last for a limited time and eventually the midcap and Small Cap outperformance resumes once the expansion phase of Index is done

TRADE SETUP
Nifty up 120 points; HDFC twins, ICICI, Kotak contributed 140 pts
Market breadth was very poor, both in Nifty and Midcaps
Market has seen 2 back to back strong days
Anecdotally, market consolidates after 2 days of strong rally
Weekly expiry today, Call spread seen in yesterday’s trade
Further rally possible if Nifty sustains above yesterday high of 16,290
Bank Nifty may have more catch up but today could be volatile

LARGE CAP VS MIDCAP ACTION
Index This month This year
Nifty 3.1% 16.3%
Midcap 0.4% 34%
Small Cap -0.4% 48%

LARGE CAP VS MIDCAP ACTION
Some more catch up for large caps is possible
Underlying theme of midcap outperformance to continue
Midcap outperformance resumes once Nifty consolidates Open / Comment

2021-08-05 05:39:02 GM Open / Comment

2021-08-04 08:05:44 Just glad that it helped. Open / Comment

2021-08-04 08:05:35 Thanks for all the kind messages on today's trade setup. I will try to send it in this format henceforth. Open / Comment

2021-08-04 06:09:18 MOUNT 16K DONE, WHAT NEXT?
Tuesday was a momentous day for Indian markets with the bulls finally managing to cross the 16,000 mark and closing above it with a flourish after testing that mark almost 5 times in July. And as it happens many times, the FIIs have come to the party after sulking for last 2 weeks with a big buy number in both cash and futures markets. Now, the obvious question is what next?

This market has exhibited a classical pattern. The market breaks out, then consolidates, takes a step back while the midcaps outperform and then the large caps bounce back. In the past whenever Nifty has broken out of a trading range, it has added 500 points in a fresh expansion, so it’s logical to now expect a move towards 16,500. What could lead it? If yesterday was any indication, the Bank Nifty might be willing to finally put its hand up. It’s an index which has massively underperformed the Nifty during the last 1000 point run but yesterday closed above the 20 and 50 DMA. The key today would be SBI’s numbers.

Another thing that could happen now is that large caps could play some catch up. This year, the Nifty is up 15% while the Small Cap Index is up 49%. While one swallow doesn’t a summer make, but yesterday the Small Cap Index ended in red and could that be an indication of things to come in near term? Let’s see

TRADE SETUP
Bulls finally conquer 16,000, fresh expansion starts
FIIs back on buy side after long selling spree
FIIs net buy Rs 2116 cr in cash markets
Index futures: FIIs add 19,000 longs, cover 12,000 shorts
Anecdotally, Nifty adds 500 points on fresh expansion
Possible to now see a sharp move towards 16,500
Bank Nifty in focus, can it correct underperformance?
Bank Nifty managed to close above 20 and 50 DMA

MIDCAPS OR LARGE CAPS?
Index This month This year
Nifty 2.3% 15.3%
Nifty Midcap 1.6% 35.6%
Small Cap 0.6% 49.4%

MIDCAPS OR LARGE CAPS?
The first phase of fresh expansion is usually in large caps
Large caps now might play some catch up to midcaps
Small Cap Index was down yesterday Open / Comment

2021-08-04 06:09:17 Good morning Open / Comment

2021-08-03 12:05:01 https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1422471195270598661?s=20 Open / Comment