2023-04-04 14:06:55
[Don’t be fooled by this trading law…]
Here’s a process that most traders go through…
1. Learn a new trading strategy to trade the markets
2. When the trading strategy stops working, try something new
3. When something “new” stops working, try something else
4. Rinse repeat over again
Now, what’s wrong with it?
Well, if you abandon your trading strategy after a few losses, then it’s like saying a coin is fake when it comes up 5 heads in a row.
That’s silly, right?
You know that in the short-run, a coin could come up heads (or tails) multiple times in a row.
But if you toss the coin 1,000 times, then you’re likely to get closer to 50% heads and 50% tails.
Now this concept is the same as trading.
In the short-run, your trading results are random. But in the long-run, it’ll align towards your system’s expectancy.
So, don’t abandon your trading strategy after a few losses.
Instead, give your trading strategy time to play out its edge (at least 100 trades or more) before concluding whether it works, or not.
Or else, you’re just getting fooled by the law of large numbers—you’ve been warned.
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