The Paradigm Shift Channel ⏳

2022-08-31 01:54:57 USA - On Sunday August 28th, a commercial fire burned a poultry processing plant in Montebello, California. The blaze at QC Poultry damaged the building and possibly several commercial vehicles.

QC Poultry is located in a heavily industrial area and did not threaten any residential properties. The fire’s cause is unknown.

Recent fires in the US at food processing facilities reported on this channel:

Fire destroys eastern Oregon's Pendleton Flour Mills is owned by Grain Craft, which is the largest independent flour milling company in the US.

Grain Storage facility in Prosser, Washington, feed storage and grain elevator burnt down.

Disruptions to US food security from fires in June at multiple food processing plants and in May.

In May, a fire at Purdue Farms facility in Virginia had its soybean processing tank burnt down . Open / Comment

2022-08-31 01:15:36 Russia's Gazprom announced that gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be stopped from August 31 until September 3 due to maintenance. Maintenance is on the only gas compressor unit remaining in operation. Upon completion, gas transportation will be restored to the level of 33 million cubic meters per day, or 20% of the pipeline’s maximum capacity.

Gazprom confirmed it had cut off off gas supplies to French utilities company Engie that has failed to pay for July gas deliveries in full. Engie maintained it “had already secured the volumes necessary to meet its commitments towards its customers and its own requirements.

Gazprom made a record 2.5 trillion roubles ($41.75 billion) in net profit in the first half of 2022 and its board recommended paying interim dividends.

Background:
Ongoing problems for servicing Gazprom's gas turbines for Nord Stream 1 by Germany's Siemens.

Electricity and natural gas futures contracts in Europe trade at record highs. Open / Comment

2022-08-30 03:20:28 The EU is preparing to intervene in into energy markets, to dampen soaring power costs and eventually seeking to break the link between gas and electricity prices. Markets already reacted today, with prices for German & French electricity dropping 20%. (Photo)

More and more member states are calling for a price cap. The exact makeup of an EU intervention plan is still being developed. Germany's, Habeck suggested a short-term tax on excessive profits by energy companies as part of the transition.

Background:
French electricity futures contracts for next year soared past 1,000 euros per MW/hr up 10X in the past year.

Backlash follows a 'natural gas levy' plan by the German government to add to consumers’ tax burden.

Waiting lists, sky rocketing prices and export bans on firewood across European countries.

No confirmation from Germany / Canada to exempt Russia's Gazprom gas turbines for servicing by Germany's Siemens for Nord Stream 1. Open / Comment

2022-08-30 02:56:50 USA - Update to last week's fire at BP's Oil Refinery (6th largest in the US) in Indiana:

On August 24th, BP's Whiting, Indiana Refinery was shut down after a fire. About 2% of nationwide refining capacity and over 10% of Midwest capacity is temporarily offline. The refinery has a 435,000 bbl/day capacity and is the largest in the Midwest and BP's largest in the world.

BP plans to restore power to a repaired electrical system at the refinery within two to three days. The company "has deployed all available resources to restore production as soon as possible."

The Environmental Protection Agency temporarily lifted a federal rule for fuel sales in four states (Indiana, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin) in response to the fire as it could affect prices and supply. The waiver lifts a Clear Air Act requirement that lower-volatility gasoline be sold in the states during summer months to limit ozone pollution. It is in effect until Sept. 15. Open / Comment

2022-08-27 17:13:17 The Biden administration lacks the political will to simply mine the needed rare earth elements domestically. “In 2010, Japan and China actually had a conflict over rare earths,”. “China responded by cutting off Japan’s access to the rare earths which really had an impact on Japan’s manufacturing capabilities.

One of the world’s few rare earths processors ( Toronto-based Neo Performance Materials) outside China has bought exploration rights to mine in Greenland .

Australia's Lynas Rare Earths posted a record more than three-fold jump in annual profit last week. Demand for neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr), widely used to make magnets that power electric vehicle motors, remained strong.

Background:

US express concerns over a potential export ban by China for rare earth elements. Recognises need for US domestic investment in rare earth elements.

The U.S. military depends almost completely on China for the hard to mine 'metalloid element' antimony. Open / Comment

2022-08-27 03:23:25 A question was asked by subscriber AZPat, pertaining to whether China's usage statistic of "10 billion barrels per day" in the above post includes agriculture & industry.
That stat equates approx. to 7 barrels per day per capita.

Water footprint calculator- China uses approx. 25 barrels of water for industry & food per day per capita (2017).

Statista - 1 barrel (drinking water) per day per capita for households in urban areas. (2019) A national consumption for 2020 equates to approx. 10 barrels per capita per day.

Our world in data (photo) - China's annual freshwater withdrawals (Withdrawals for agriculture + industry + municipal + water from desalination plants) equates to approx. 10 barrels per day per capita (2017) vs the US of 30 barrels per day per capita.

In China, only 14% of water usage goes to the basic needs of hydration, sanitation, hygiene, and cooking. 62% of China's water is used in agriculture and 22% in industry & power generation. (2021). Open / Comment

2022-08-27 00:38:06 China- Local gov't issued an urgent joint emergency notice, warning that the autumn harvest was under “severe threat”, urging “every unit of water … be used carefully”. A record-breaking heatwave combined with a months-long drought during the usual flood season has wreaked havoc across China’s usually water-rich south.

China, consumes ten billion barrels of water per day (approximately 700x its daily oil consumption). 19% of China's surface water is not fit for human consumption according to China’s Ministry of Environment. Roughly 7% was deemed unfit for any use at all.

60% of China's wheat, 45% of its corn, 35% of its cotton and 64% of its peanuts come from the at-risk North China Plain - where, in the example of wheat, their annual production of more than 80 million tons is on par with Russia's annual output, while their 125 million tons of corn is nearly 3x Ukraine's prewar production. Open / Comment

2022-08-26 23:29:22 French electricity for next year soared past 1,000 euros ($1,000) today, the futures contract gained more than 10X in the past year. In France, only 24 of EDF's 56 nuclear reactors are operating at the moment, due to a corrosion problem.

The German equivalent also gained to a record, rising as high as 920 euros a megawatt-hour for a gain of more than 64% this week. Nordic power for next year jumped 11% to a record 277 euros a megawatt-hour.

Energy executives in the UK have warned the gov't that the country faces the prospect of mass civil unrest due to higher heating and electricity bills this winter. In Northern Ireland gas prices will rise by 28.3% & electricity prices will go up by 35.4% from 1 October.

On Monday, Norway's NO2 electricity region (covering southern Vestland, Rogaland, Agder, Telemark and old Vestfold) saw a daily record price of 5.35 kroner per kWh. Open / Comment

2022-08-26 22:39:30 A 'gas levy' plan by the German government to add to consumers’ tax burden in order to shield gas importers from excessive prices prompted backlash. The levy, which is scheduled to take effect in October, was set at 0.024 euros per kilowatt-hour . Since its announcement, a dozen utilities have filed applications for financial aid to the tune of 34 billion euros.

Natural gas prices in the US hit the highest in 14 years this week, with the Henry Hub benchmark temporarily topping $10 per million BTU . U.S. producers’ now has new central role as biggest suppliers to Europe. This means domestic U.S. gas prices will remain under upward pressure, too, and that will last for a while as well.

The UK’s North Sea produced 26% more natural gas in the first half of this year than it did this time last year. The decrease in shutdown activity was made possible in part by the flurry of maintenance it completed in the year prior. Open / Comment

2022-08-26 01:04:58 Google searches for 'Brennholz' (firewood ) in Germany have exploded over the last couple of months.

Some members of Poland's ruling party irritate their supporters by advising Poles to stock up on firewood in the forests for heating.

A rush has resulted in Belgium for some firewood suppliers working with waiting lists, and others only serving regular customers.

UK log sellers report sales jump of 60%. One company that produces 16,000 tonnes of kiln dried firewood each year said a large portion of the firewood imported is from Russia and Belarus, which has since faced UK sanctions.

Hungary has imposed an export ban on fuels to ensure domestic supply needs and recently loosened logging regulations to meet increased demand for firewood.

Firewood seller in Småland, Sweden says demand has increased by 20%.

Estonia -The price of wood pellets used for heating has tripled on year. Open / Comment