The tug of war in #Bitcoin near the psychologically important $20K continues.
Ian Harnett, a co-founder of Absolute Strategy Research, has suggested that bitcoin will collapse to $13K this year, a 80% drop from the historic highs.
Arcane Research noted that in 2013 and 2017, BTC fell 85% and 84%. If history repeats, bitcoin’s downside potential persists to the $10,350 mark.
However, we note that in previous bullish cycles, the strengthening of BTCUSD has been many times stronger. For example, in 2013, it was more than 90 times. In 2017, it was 20 times, while in a year-long growth cycle through the highs of 2021, we saw “only” a tenfold increase.
In our view, it is much more reliable to estimate that Bitcoin finds a long-term bottom near the highs of the previous 4-year cycle, where we are already.
But still, it may not be the best time to buy, as it may take time before the crypto digests the recent turmoil and enters a phase of sustained investors' demand, not just stressed asset hunters.
