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2022-09-01 17:11:02 #WaveAnalysis

#WTI reversed from resistance level 95.00

• Likely to fall to support level 86.25

WTI crude oil recently reversed down with the Bearish Engulfing from the resistance level 95.00 (which has been reversing the pair from the start of August), intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 143.00 started the active short-term impulse wave 5.

WTI crude oil can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 86.25 (low of the previous impulse wave 3).

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2022-09-01 16:51:01 #WaveAnalysis

#EURCAD reversed from resistance level 1.3200

• Likely to fall to support level 1.3000

EURCAD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance level 1.3200, intersecting with the upper Bollinger Bond and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.3200 stopped the earlier short-term correction 2.

Given the strong long-term downtrend and moderate euro bearishness – EURCAD can be expected to fall further toward the next round support level 1.3000.

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2022-09-01 16:30:33 #WaveAnalysis

#GBPUSD broke key support level 1.1800

• Likely to test major support level 1.1455

GBPUSD currency pair under the bearish pressure after the earlier breakout of the key support level 1.1800 (low of the previous medium-term impulse wave (3)).

The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.3200 stopped the earlier short-term correction 2.

Given the powerful weekly downtrend – Sterling can be expected to fall further toward the next major support level 1.1455 (former multi-month low from the start of 2020).

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2022-08-31 15:25:21 #Bitcoin has stopped falling but has still not managed to gain strength to rise, remaining near $20K. Ethereum remains more interesting for buyers, increasing 1.6% overnight to above $1600.

The upcoming move to proof-of-stake creates a speculative component to #Ethereum's dynamics. While in the short term, after September 6, there could be a "sell-through," causing pressure on the price, in the longer term, such a transition will strengthen interest in using Ethereum for transactions, making them cheaper. This promises more interest in the coin, allowing it to remain "better than the market".

On the tech analysis side, ETHUSD is trying to get back above the 50-day average, which is an informal indicator of the medium-term trend. A consolidation above $1620, like in July, could be a prolonged rally with possible targets at $2000-2200 in the nearest future. The opposite is also true. A reversal down from this level will weaken bulls, as it did in February and April, triggering a new decline towards $1000. Open / Comment

2022-08-30 14:58:54 Open / Comment

2022-08-30 14:49:54 Uncontrolled current-level depreciation could permanently undermine the euro's status as a reserve currency, quickly translating into higher debt-servicing costs.

The debt problem is bad news for the euro. History is also not on the side of the buyers right now. In previous episodes of overcoming parity, it was not a turning point but only a temporary stopgap. Fundamentals are also on the bears' side for now. Because, despite the attention on the euro exchange rate, the ECB is moving slower than Fed in policy normalisation and much further away from the point where policy becomes neutral. Open / Comment

2022-08-30 14:49:42 With such a macroeconomic backdrop, it is not surprising that central bankers talk about the need to "take the pain" of policy tightening to suppress price increases and, more importantly, reverse inflation expectations.

The good news for the euro is that it responds well to the reassurances and threats from central bank officials. That was difficult for the BoJ to achieve earlier this year. At the same time, it is worth realising that verbal interventions in this situation can only buy a little time. Very soon, the ECB will confirm its intentions by effectively tightening monetary policy.

The fact is that not only energy prices are now at stake but also the credibility of the debt securities of smaller Eurozone countries. Last month, the ECB was forced to launch a sophisticated mechanism to hold down bond spreads of core and peripheral euro-region countries. The widening of spreads was another signal of a loss of confidence. Open / Comment

2022-08-30 14:49:14 ECB comes to the euro defence
The fall in the single European currency has paused after briefly touching the 0.99 level earlier this month. As in July, the momentum of the EURUSD decline has sparked a resurgence of verbal interventions. Judging by the tone of recent comments, the ECB is reassuring the markets that it is soon ready to raise rates more aggressively.

This sentiment supports interest in the single currency hovering around parity with the dollar. We recently heard from Lane that September would mark the start of a new phase of ECB policy.

As clearly as possible for central bankers, Rehn and Kazaks say that euro weakness worries the regulator and will influence the next rate decision.

The euro's 15% fall against the dollar over the past 12 months is an additional pro-inflationary factor on top of skyrocketing energy prices, broken supply chains and a tight labour market. Open / Comment

2022-08-30 12:36:06 #WaveAnalysis

#GBPCHF reversed from support level 1.1290

• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.1420

GBPCHF currency pair recently reversed up from the support level 1.1290 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) earlier this month) standing near the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from the support level 1.1290 stopped the earlier impulse waves iii and (iii).

Given strength of the nearby support level 1.1290, GBPCHF can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.1420 (top of the previous wave (ii)).

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2022-08-30 12:14:34 #WaveAnalysis

#CHFJPY reversed from resistance level 143.00

• Likely to fall to support level 141.35

CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance level 143.00 (which stopped the previous impulse waves (5) and (B)) intersecting with the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from the resistance level 143.00 stopped the earlier short-term impulse wave 3.

Given strength of the nearby resistance level 143.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, CHFJPY can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 141.35 (low of the previous wave 2).

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