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2022-08-29 10:45:00 Bitcoin is down 7.3% over the past week, falling below $20,000 at the start of the day on Monday. Ethereum lost 9.2% to $1450, while top altcoins fell from 5% (Cardano) to 15.7% (Solana).

Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, is down 6.6% for the week, to $952bn. The total capitalisation graph suggests that the bear market is not yet over. The Crypto market will finally confirm this hypothesis if the crypto market falls below the lows of June, meaning it is worth less than $800bn. Until then, we can only talk about the ongoing battle for a trillion.

The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down to 24 points by Monday, down from 29 a week earlier. It is back in extreme fear territory.

The end of last week asserted Bitcoin's leading role as a risk demand indicator when stock indices dropped sharply on Friday. It is worth noting that since the second half of August, Bitcoin has been "going down the ladder" roughly as it did in April and May, albeit in less broad steps. Open / Comment

2022-08-26 11:05:37 But it would break the trend of recent months, where Bitcoin has often acted as a leading indicator for the global equity market.

News background
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said that eventually, cryptocurrencies would be integrated everywhere, as the internet has previously been, and the catalyst for their universal adoption will come from large tech companies.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes that people underestimate how much cryptocurrency payments are superior to other traditional payment instruments.

One of the world's leading technology companies, South Korea's Samsung, is serious about entering the crypto market by launching its cryptocurrency platform in the first half of 2023.

Olli Rehn, governor of the Bank of Finland, said the digital euro and the use of private financial technology could make cross-border payments easier in Europe. Open / Comment

2022-07-15 17:11:51 This deceleration results from the correction in commodity prices and the strengthening of the dollar in previous weeks. But most importantly, this index indicates that the peak of the rate of price increases is over.

More signs of a bullish trend reversal in prices might ease the Fed’s pressure on the key rate. Market participants are now trying to weigh the chances of a one percentage point hike in a week and a half. A softening of their expectations could trigger a corrective pullback in the dollar and an attempted equity market recovery. Open / Comment

2022-07-15 17:11:27 With signs of US price pressure decline, will the Fed soften its approach?

Although US retail sales figures are often the more important news, their slight overshooting relative to expectations has, in our view, less impact on markets than the import price index.

According to preliminary estimates, US sales rose by 1% in June against expectations of 0.9% and a 0.1% contraction a month earlier. Not too much better than expected, given that volume is not price-adjusted, which was higher than expected earlier in the week.

The good news for market participants is the cooling of import price increases. For the month, the index added 0.2% vs 0.7% expected and to 10.7% y/y versus 11.6% a month earlier, with 12.1% forecasted. Open / Comment

2022-07-15 15:56:55 This is not the first time China had had to deflect against the wind by tightening policy when the world economies softened in 2020-2021. The developed countries are quickly taking money off the table, and China is again trying to offset the external downturn with domestic consumption. And this is bad news for the Chinese renminbi.

The technical analysis indicates the almost three-month period of consolidation of the yuan against the dollar after the growth impulse in April is over. During May, the USDCNH corrected its surge from the year’s lows in February, stopping it at the classic 61.8% Fibonacci level. A bullish scenario for UDSCNH implies a rise to the 7.13-7.15 area, this is near the highs of 2019 and 2020 and at 161.8% of the rally in the first months of the year. Open / Comment

2022-07-15 15:56:31 China’s slowdown weakens the yuan

The Chinese economy is experiencing a sharp slowdown, raising a reasonable doubt that GDP will be able to grow by the initially planned 5.5% this year. Fresh data showed that China’s economy was only 0.4% higher in the second quarter than a year earlier. The half-year increase is 2.5% compared to the same period a year earlier.

A new round of problems for property developers and an increasing boycott by mortgage borrowers to pay their debts is becoming a bigger problem. Government intervention with massive infrastructure stimulus, for example, through nationalising troubled properties, looks logical.

The flip side of the stimulus is an increase in the money supply and a weaker exchange rate. Technically, we have been seeing pressure on the Chinese renminbi against the dollar since the end of last week, and an analysis of the fundamentals suggests that this downward momentum has just begun. Open / Comment

2022-07-15 10:30:49 #WaveAnalysis

#EURCAD reversed from major support level 1.3020

• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3200

EURCAD recently reversed up from the major long-term support level 1.3020 (former multi-year low from the middle of 2015), standing outside of the lower weekly Bollinger band.

The upward reversal from the support level 1.3020 is likely to form the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.

Given the oversold weekly Stochastic, EURCAD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.3200.

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2022-07-15 10:10:01 #WaveAnalysis #C

• Citibank under bearish pressure

• Likely to fall to support level 42.00

Citibank under the bearish pressure after the price broke below the strong support level 45.25 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the middle of May).

The breakout of the support level 45.25 should accelerate the active minor impulse wave (iii) of the higher order impulse wave 5 from May.

Given the clear daily downtrend, Citibank can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 42.00 (target for the completion of the active minor impulse wave (iii)).

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2022-07-15 09:46:51 #WaveAnalysis

#Gold broke pivotal support level 1725.00

• Likely to fall to support level 1684.00

Gold recently broke below the pivotal support level 1725.00 (former multi-month support from last September).

The breakout of the support level 1725.00 is aligned with the clear downtrend that can be seen on the daily charts.

Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1684.00 (former powerful support from August of 2021) – from where gold is likely to correct up.

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2022-07-15 09:13:05 During June, the cost of mining bitcoin fell from $24K to $13K, which could boost coin sales by miners and become a barrier to BTC growth, JPMorgan said.

According to Thomas Peterffy, CEO of Interactive Brokers, there is a high probability that bitcoin will be outlawed.

The US government could ban cryptocurrencies out of concern that they are being used to finance illegal activities, tax evasion, and the Treasury Department’s inability to monitor transactions involving crypto assets.

Cryptocurrency lender Celsius has filed for “immediate” bankruptcy in the US Bankruptcy Code, Chapter 11.

A federal court in New York has frozen the remaining assets of cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital after the company filed for emergency bankruptcy.

The European Central Bank has decided on the parameters of the future digital euro and intends to issue it in 2023. The success of CBDC will depend on its mass use. Open / Comment