FxPro

2022-06-17 16:45:54 Open / Comment

2022-06-17 12:40:02 #WaveAnalysis

#AUDNZD reversed from resistance level 1.1160
• Likely to fall to support level 1.1030

AUDNZD currency pair just reversed down from the key resistance level 1.1160 (top of the previous impulse wave 1 from the start of May).

The resistance level 1.1160 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

AUDNZD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 1.1030 (low of wave 2 from the middle of June).

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2022-06-17 12:11:54 #WaveAnalysis

#CADCHF broke support level 0.7600
• Likely to fall to support level 0.7550

CADCHF currency pair recently broke the key support level 0.7600 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the upward wave (B) from May.

The breakout of the support level 0.7600 should accelerate the active impulse waves 1 and (C).

CADCHF currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.7550 (low of wave B from the start of June).

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2022-06-17 11:00:47 At no time in past down cycles has BTC fallen below the high of the previous bull cycle. Closing the week below $22.3K would also be unique, as it would be the first close below the 200-week average. Bitcoin has previously fallen below this curve more than once but quickly regained some ground, finding ample demand from long-term investors amid a deep and quick sell-off.

The latest issue to attract investors’ attention has been the uncertainty surrounding Singapore-based cryptocurrency fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC). The hedge fund could be the subject of a new scandal amid growing speculation about its possible bankruptcy.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero called on the US Congress to close the cryptocurrency regulation gap and compared the collapse in the crypto-asset market to the 2008 financial crisis. Open / Comment

2022-06-17 11:00:09 Bitcoin will test historical patterns

Bitcoin was down 4.9% on Thursday, ending around $20.7K and trading near $20.8K at the start of the day on Friday. Ethereum lost 6.4% in the last 24 hours, returning to the 1100 area. Altcoins in the top 10 fell in price from 2.9% (BNB) to 8.8% (Polkadot).

Total crypto market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 3.5% overnight to $903bn. Bitcoin’s dominance index fell 0.3 points to 44.0%. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was up 2 points to 9 by Friday.

Although we did not see any new intraday lows, Bitcoin closed Thursday with a tenth consecutive day of declines. New lows in stock indices contributed mainly to this.

Bitcoin could be uncharted territory in a few days when historical patterns stop working.

The bearish focus remains on the circular $20,000 level, the former peak of 2017. Open / Comment

2022-06-16 17:28:25 However, traders and investors should be cautious. The SNB has warned that it will remain active with currency interventions that could contain the strengthening of the franc.

However, the last point is highly controversial. A rate hike and strengthening the national currency vs. competitors both suppress inflation, so FX activity from the SNB is likely to reduce volatility but not reverse the market.

Over the last half-century, monetary and fiscal policy has helped the franc methodically strengthen against the euro and the Dollar. Recent actions by the SNB suggest that this historical trend will continue, bringing the EURCHF steadily below parity before the end of the year. Open / Comment

2022-06-16 17:27:58 SNB suddenly hikes interest rate, triggering Franc rally

In a surprise decision, the Swiss National Bank raised its key rate by 50 points to -0.25%, the first increase in the country in 15 years. The SNB commented on the decision that it does not rule out further rises.

The main reason cited was to fight inflation, which reached 2.9% y/y in May. Inflation around Switzerland (in the Euro-region) is more than double, but rates have not been raised there. Therefore, analysts and traders did not expect to see policy tightening in Switzerland today.
The hawkish surprise caused the USDCHF to fall more than 2% to 1.013, subsequently pulling back to 1.018.

It is fair to say that the SNB is acting pre-emptively by actively raising the rate now in order not to raise it longer and higher later. The Fed, the ECB and the BoJ are getting their share of criticism for not doing the same. Open / Comment

2022-06-16 13:21:02 GDP growth for 2022 was revised from 2.8% to 1.7%, and such a rate is expected for 2023.

Among the potentially positive things for the markets is the assurance that yesterday’s move was exceptional and that FOMC intends to hike by another 50-points at the end of the July meeting.

It is also essential for markets to understand where the Fed intends to stand. Average forecasts from FOMC members suggest a level of 3.75%, which is 200 points above the current rate and 150 points below the peak that the futures market set up for the day before.

Despite the reassurances of Powell, the markets can hardly go through a period of 50-point hikes at a time with quantitative easing without losses, which is tightening financial conditions on both sides.
The rally in the Dollar and the decline in equity prices in response to such policies could bring the final point of fiscal tightening closer. Still, in the coming days or weeks, markets have a high chance of adjusting to the new reality. Open / Comment

2022-06-16 13:19:56 S&P500 could fall to 3,500 before Fed softens its approach

The Fed raised the rate by 75 points, something it has not done in 28 years. Such a move had already been priced in. In fact, on the eve of the announcement, the markets had even factored a small probability of a 100-point move.

The Fed did not go against the markets but did not add fuel to the expectations, creating a “sell the facts” reaction. However, there are considerable doubts about the sustainability of yesterday’s rebound in equities and the Dollar’s retreat.

In trading in Europe, the Dollar largely regained its losses after the FOMC, and the equity market erased the rebound. Today’s market reaction looks like a prologue to further downward impulse in the coming days, justified by tighter financial conditions from the world’s biggest central banks and worsening macroeconomic forecasts.

Thus, the Fed raised its year-end forecast for the unemployment rate to 3.7%, ruling out a further decline from current levels. Open / Comment

2022-06-16 12:01:26 #WaveAnalysis

#Platinum reversed from support level 920.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 960.00

Platinum recently reversed up from the support level 920.00 (which is the upper border of the support zone which has been reversing the price from the middle of September, the lower boundary stands at 900.00).

The upward reversal from the support level 920.00 stopped the previous minor retracement 2 from the start of June.

Given the oversold daily Stochastic, Platinum can be expected to rise further toward the next round resistance level 960.00.

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