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2022-06-15 10:04:56 According to CoinShares, institutional investors withdrew $102 million from cryptocurrencies last week amid expectations of a tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. The US regulator’s two-day meeting results will be announced todays.

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes fears that the market has not yet hit rock bottom, and we could see a massive sell-off in cryptocurrencies if bitcoin falls below $20,000. Galaxy Digital head Mike Novogratz is convinced that bitcoin is close to the “bottom” and will hold above $20,000.

We believe Bitcoin may be close to its bottom, but it could take months until the next rally. During those months, the entire crypto industry will probably go through a furnace of fire, as we saw with Terra (Luna), and is now happening with Celsius. Stablecoins continue to be tested, and USDD being below parity with USD for the third day tells us that history with USDT (stable tied to Luna) could repeat itself several times. Open / Comment

2022-06-15 10:04:36 Bitcoin’s continued collapse and furnace of fire for the crypto periphery

Bitcoin was down 5.7% on Tuesday, ending the day at around $22K. The decline picked up on Wednesday morning, taking another 3.3% off the price to $21K, declining for the eighth consecutive day and losing 30% in seven days.

Ethereum lost 8.1% in 24 hours and 38% in a week. Leading altcoins in the top ten are losing between 2% (Polkadot) and 9.6% (Dogecoin).

Total cryptocurrency market capitalisation, according to CoinMarketCap, sank 6.4% overnight to $898bn. The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index was down 1 point by Wednesday, to 7, which last was in March 2020.

Concerns around a sharp tightening of monetary policy are weighing on financial markets and are trickling down into cryptocurrencies through their influence on large institutional investors. It is not surprising that Bitcoin and Ether are dragging the entire cryptocurrency market down in such an environment. Open / Comment

2022-06-14 16:44:27 Open / Comment

2022-06-14 16:29:15 Fourth, gold’s recovery this week stalled near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the April peak to the May low.
Further near-term targets for the bears look like the $1790 area. If risk-off sentiments prevail in the global markets at those levels, gold may quickly return to the area of $1730-1770, where it found buyers’ support in the second half of last year.

If we move up to the weekly timeframes, a potential final sell-off is seen in the 200-week moving average at $1630, which is also a 50% retracement of the 2018-2020 rise triggered by the soft monetary policy. Open / Comment

2022-06-14 16:28:33 Bearish signals in gold set up a drawdown potentially to $1630

Gold lost about 3% on Monday alone and touched $1809 at the start of trading on Tuesday. Yesterday’s sell-off provided us with four medium-term bearish signals on the daily timeframes.

First, the daily candlestick completely absorbed Friday’s bullish momentum, clearly showing the strength of the bears.
Secondly, gold’s recovery stalled on the approach of the 50-day moving average. The strong reversal indicates that the medium-term trend remains bearish.

Third, in a decisive move, gold has moved below its 200-day moving average, a significant long-term trend signal that works well in gold. A consolidation below this line is a prologue to a further downtrend. Knowing this, investors often increase selling on such a signal, intensifying the fall in the coming days after a consolidation below this line. Open / Comment

2022-06-10 17:04:43 A separate issue is quantitative tightening. The Fed could also adjust its plans to sell assets off the balance sheet to tighten financial conditions in the country further. Proponents of such an approach point to the record amounts of excess liquidity that commercial banks are parking on central bank balance sheets.

High inflation is bad news for the stock market because it will force the Fed to tighten the monetary policy screws even further. The Fed's open intention to suppress inflation creates risk-off market sentiment when the price growth remains high. In this environment, dollar-denominated money market assets become attractive because of higher yields.

This is in stark contrast to last year when the Fed reassured us that everything would pass by itself, so investors preferred to sell dollars that were losing value. Open / Comment

2022-06-10 16:55:36 Accelerating US inflation weighs on stocks, strengthens USD

The US consumer price index accelerated by 8.6% in May from 8.3% a month earlier. The new data exceeded expectations, rebutting hopes that US inflation is already slowing.

Today's inflation report is the last big release before the Fed meeting next Wednesday. A renewal of inflation to 40-year highs will surely attract the public's attention at the weekend and will pressure the Fed.

Potentially, such high reading could trigger a tougher FOMC stance in the accompanying commentary. Recently, the Fed has been expected to raise rates by 50 points next week and hints of another such move in late July.

However, with a strong labour market and persistently high inflation, there are increasing chances that more such double-sized rate hikes are required, which is speculatively good news for the dollar in the coming weeks. Open / Comment

2022-06-10 13:29:44 ECB is two steps behind the Fed, digging a hole under the euro

As expected, euro buyers' optimism faded immediately after the ECB press conference began, returning EURUSD to a repeat of 1.0600.

Shortly after the initial surge in reports of an actual reversal in ECB policy, investors and traders delved into assessments of how slower the policy reversal in Europe was.

The ECB will only stop buying assets on its balance sheet later this month - two steps behind the US, where purchases were curtailed months ago and active sales are already due to begin in June.
The Fed raised its rate by 25 points in March and 50 points at the start of May, promising two more 50-point hikes in June and July. From the ECB, we see a conditional promise to consider a rate hike of more than 25 points in September in case of high inflation forecasts for 2023.
That said, inflation in the eurozone is comparable to the US, and economic growth is just as, if not more, vulnerable to logistical failures and energy prices. Open / Comment

2022-06-10 11:00:33 #WaveAnalysis #NTG

• Natural gas reversed from resistance level 9.500
• Likely to fall to support level 7.95

Natural gas recently reversed down with the daily Evening Star Doji from the key resistance level 9.500 (top of wave (iii) from May).

The downward reversal from the resistance level 9.500 started the active minor impulse wave (c).

Given the bearish divergence on the daily Momentum indicator, Natural gas can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 7.95 (low of wave (ii)).

Trade responsibly at fxpro.com Open / Comment

2022-06-10 10:40:03 #WaveAnalysis

#EUR50 reversed from key resistance level 3820.00
• Likely to fall to support level 3700.00

EUR50 index recently reversed down from the key resistance level 3820.00 (former support from the start of April, which has been reversing the price from the end of April).

The resistance zone near the resistance level 3820.00 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the earlier downward wave (2) from April.

Given the clear downtrend, EUR50 index can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 3700.00.

Trade responsibly at fxpro.com Open / Comment