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2022-06-01 11:40:49 By Fibonacci, the final selling point, in that case, would be the 161.8% level of the initial momentum, somewhere around $1650, where the price was by the end of February 2020. That is, before the spike, the subsequent failure, and a long pandemic rally.

Such a scenario would be very nice, but several factors could prevent it from materialising. Gold has been repeatedly redeemed on dips to the $1750 area in the past year. Inflationary acceleration and geopolitics gradually raised the bar from which purchases prevailed.

There is also a $1750 mark near 61.8% from the 2018-2020 rally, and the bulls can step up the onslaught at the top defence level. If they fail to do so, there could be an absolute capitulation in gold.

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2022-06-01 11:40:12 Where gold’s downtrend is heading

Gold has shed its position for the second day in a row, losing more than 1% during that time, and that might be just the beginning of a new downside wave, which will potentially take the price down to $1650. However, investors and traders will likely consider the potential to outweigh the risks early on.

The momentum of the ounce’s decline from April 18 to May 16 took more than $200 from the peak to the bottom and was sharp enough for the bears to need a recharge. However, at the beginning of last week, the rebound began to choke around 61.8% of the initial rally - clearly within the Fibonacci pattern.

Yesterday Gold closed below its 200 SMA, and the debt and equity markets went back to selling. This dynamic is a significant signal that the bounce and consolidation phase ends in a victory for the dollar bulls, which increases the pressure on gold. Open / Comment

2022-06-01 10:45:04 #WaveAnalysis

#NZDUSD reversed from resistance level 0.6535
• Likely to fall to support level 0.6425

NZDUSD recently reversed down from the key resistance level 0.6535 (top former multi-month low from January).

The resistance area near the resistance level 0.6535 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse 1 from April.

Given the strong downtrend and strong USD inflows, NZDUSD can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 0.6425.

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2022-06-01 10:15:01 #WaveAnalysis

#USDJPY reversed from support level 127.00
• Likely to rise to resistance level 129.65

USDJPY recently reversed up from the key support level 127.00 (which stopped wave (ii) in April), intersecting with lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse 1 from March.

The upward reversal from the support level 127.00 started the active impulse wave (5).

Given the clear daily uptrend, USDJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 129.65 (top of wave B from the middle of May).

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2022-06-01 09:47:44 The lack of desperation in crypto for a real rally

Bitcoin slowed its growth late Tuesday afternoon, retreating from local highs near $32.3K to $31.5K.

According to CoinShares, institutional investors invested $87 million in crypto funds last week, reaching $0.52 billion since the start of the year.

Glassnode notes that most HODLers continue to build up their positions in bitcoin.

The crypto market is still full of optimists, while a real bull market is more likely to sprout from despair or oblivion. We saw despair in March 2020 and an example of oblivion - more than a year of decline since the December 2017 peaks. It has now been half as long, so we should be prepared to see a rally in a falling market in the coming months, but not a repeat of the October 2020 to April 2021 rise.

In terms of seasonality, June is considered a relative success for BTC. Over the past 11 years, bitcoin has ended the month up seven times and down four. The average rise was 16.7%, and the average drop was 11.3%. Open / Comment

2022-05-31 15:35:08 A respite for the dollar bulls or a trend reversal? We will find out today

In the US debt market, 10-year Treasury yields have exceeded 2.8% after floundering around 2.7% last week. This small move for bonds is having severe consequences for almost all markets.
The dollar index is almost in sync with long-term bond yields pulling away from its 50-day moving average, coinciding with a 50% correction from the rally from late March to mid-May.

EURUSD and USDJPY are moving today towards the prevailing trends of recent weeks. As in the case of the 10-yr yields and DXY, the dollar bulls went back into play after touching the 50-day averages for these instruments. US equity index futures are losing traction, with the S&P500 pulling back from levels above 4200 to 4140.

Interestingly, pressure increased in oil, despite a potentially positive backdrop. Open / Comment

2022-05-31 14:24:25 Major market news coming up in June!
Keep an eye on the upcoming market events this month, which may significantly affect the markets. ( All times are in GMT)
3rd – 12:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls
7th - 04:30 - RBA Interest Rate Decision
9th – 11:45 - ECB Interest Rate Decision
15th – 18:00 - Fed Interest Rate Decision
16th – 11:00 - BoE Interest Rate Decision
17th – 03:00 - BoJ Interest Rate Decision
Stay up to date with market news in our Economic Calendar. Open / Comment

2022-05-31 12:12:19 Already, high energy costs are causing a decline in retail consumption in Europe and the US, the world’s wealthiest regions. No doubt developing countries are experiencing an even more significant slowdown in their economies because of prevailing high fuel prices.

Oil is susceptible to fluctuations in supply and demand, so a shift in the balance of supply and demand by a couple of per cent sometimes triggers movements of tens of per cent, as happened more than once in the past decade. The high cost of fuel is already causing a reduction in consumption, which, combined with higher quotas in OPEC+, will shift the balance towards the buyers in the coming months.


From current levels, we would venture to guess that oil has minimal short-term upside potential to bounce back from the news emotionally. A prolonged lull could follow, with movement in the $100-120/bbl range until the end of the year, during which time demand and supply will adjust to the new reality. Open / Comment

2022-05-31 12:11:37 Brent storms $120, but the rally may be nearing the end

Brent spot prices were approaching $120 earlier today on news that the EU managed to agree on an immediate embargo on 2/3 of oil imports from Russia.

We saw Oil trading above current levels for just a couple of days in March.
Over the last four days, as discussions on the ban on oil imports have continued, its price has risen by more than 7%, and much of the news may already have been priced in.

Current levels are at a considerable distance from the highs of 2008 at $146 and below the peaks of 2011 and 2012 when they briefly went above $126.

However, from a historical perspective, prices are close to unsustainably high levels. Open / Comment

2022-05-31 11:00:15 #WaveAnalysis

#EURJPY broke resistance level 136.60
• Likely to rise to resistance level 138.00

EURJPY currency pair continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 136.60 (which stopped the previous minor wave (i)).

The breakout of the resistance level 136.60 continues the active minor impulse wave (iii) of the higher-order impulse wave 3 from the middle of May.

EURJPY can be expected to rise further toward the next round resistance level 138.00 (top of wave (b) from the start of this month).

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