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2021-02-16 12:05:00 A dangerously thin demand for risk

Japan's Nikkei225 is moving further into the region of 31-year highs above 30,000. However, this is happening on ever-decreasing volumes. It could be a signal of buyer uncertainty or a just decrease in trading activity during Lunar New Year celebrations. Whatever the case, it looks that the ‘sell high’ strategy is the more reliable one in such a dynamic market.

USDJPY pulled back last week as it tried to rise above the 200 daily moving average. Today it is testing that line again, rising to 105.50. Another pullback promises to signal that the large capitals still hesitate to switch from a ‘coronavirus trade’ to a ‘recovery trade’.

EURUSD, meanwhile, is hitting resistance near the 50-day average at 1.2150 due to the cooling economic recovery.

https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/a-dangerously-thin-demand-for-risk-20210216/ Open / Comment

2021-02-15 19:39:48 #WaveAnalysis

#FTSE100 broke resistance level 6645

• Likely to test resistance level 6900

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/ftse-100-wave-analysis-15-february-2021-20210215/ Open / Comment

2021-02-02 17:51:44 AUD is losing to a wide range of competitors today after the Reserve Bank of Australia's somewhat unexpected decision to extend its QE programme beyond mid-April. The RBA has announced its intention to buy another A$100bn in national bonds, continuing to buy at a rate of 5bn a week (roughly 22.2bn a month).

Australia's economy is 15 times smaller than that of the US, making the RBA's bond-buying more than twice as aggressive as the Fed's. So it would not be surprising to see further Aussie weakness in the wake of such drastic action Down-under in the coming days.

Technically, AUDUSD is now testing the support at the 0.7600 level, which is also the 50-day moving average and the Fibonacci retracement level of the October-January momentum. A decline below this line opens a direct path to 0.7500. Lower targets are at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement from the April-January rally at 0.7250, where the 200-day average will approach by the end of February. Open / Comment

2021-02-02 12:09:58 A robust oil surge

US WTI is recovering much more briskly than it’s North Sea counterpart, already testing $54, the February 2020 highs. There are good reasons for this: accelerated depletion of US crude stocks in recent weeks and stagnation in production at around 11m barrels per day.

Due to these fundamentals, WTI has managed to return to the trading range with support at $50. It has methodically received support since late 2018. With further support from the demand for risky assets and reliable economic recovery, WTI could settle in the $55-$65 range, where it spent much of 2019.

https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/a-worrying-dollar-rise-and-a-robust-oil-surge-20210202/ Open / Comment

2021-02-02 11:25:46 A worrying dollar rise
Global markets seem to have managed to avoid a downward spiral from the start of the month. US stock indices, followed by the rest of the world, made steady gains, adding more than one and a half per cent for the S&P500 and MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan, while Nikkei225 gained 0.8%.

Against such an upbeat backdrop, we continue following some caution the dollar’s strengthening against the yen and franc, the continuing pullback in the euro and the hovering of the pound around 1.37. On the one hand, we see exact pressure on the defensive currencies. But on the other hand, the dollar index is developing its corrective recovery, a rare combination with a sustained strengthening of global equity indices.


Simply put, dollar dynamics so far make one wary of strengthening markets.

https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/a-worrying-dollar-rise-and-a-robust-oil-surge-20210202/ Open / Comment

2021-02-01 20:35:57 #WaveAnalysis
#USDJPY under bullish pressure

• Likely to reach resistance level 105.70

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdjpy-wave-analysis-1-february-2021-20210201/ Open / Comment

2021-02-01 19:20:00 The US ISM Manufacturing Index for January came out lower than expected. The index fell from a two-year high of 60.5 in December to 58.7 in January, worse than the awaited 60.0. The strongest push on the index was from the price component, which reached its highest level in nearly ten years. The new orders component lost 6.4 points.

In the run-up to Non-farm payrolls, it is essential to note the rise in the employment component from 51.7 to 52.6, reflecting the development of positive trends in the manufacturing labour market.

Although the sector represents less than a quarter of US GDP, it has established itself as a reliable leading indicator of economic activity.

Historically, the manufacturing PMI rarely registers above 60 for an extended period, as it usually only does so during times of accelerated recovery. Today's data reinforced inflation expectations, which brought EURUSD back below 1.2100 on this news. Open / Comment

2021-02-01 12:48:28 January’s weak end opening the way to a 10% market decline

The monthly candles close of the key US indices also look worrisome as the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq formed a “shooting star” pattern. We see the same reversal pattern on many other indices.

Today, as markets are trying to rebound from the local lows, it is worth observing to see if indices manage to return above the 50-day averages.

If they succeed, it would indicate buyers’ strength and an increased buying activity during the declines.

A pullback, however, looks more likely, potentially turning the former support into resistance. The 200-day average lines could become a technical target for a correction for the three major US indices.

For S&P500, this opens up the potential for a 10% decline from current levels, versus 8.2% for Dow Jones and 13.7% for Nasdaq100.

https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/januarys-weak-end-opening-the-way-to-a-10-market-decline-20210201/ Open / Comment

2021-01-29 20:06:44 #WaveAnalysis

#AUDJPY reversed from support level 79.50

• Likely to rise to 81.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audjpy-wave-analysis-29-january-2021-20210129/ Open / Comment

2021-01-29 20:04:27 #WaveAnalysis

#USDCAD reversed from resistance level 1.2835

• Likely to test support level 1.2635

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdcad-wave-analysis-29-january-2021-20210129/ Open / Comment