FxPro

2021-02-18 18:23:35 The US's weekly jobless claims came out noticeably weaker than expected, further underlining the government stimulus packages' importance.

Initial jobless claims for the week to February 13th jumped to 861K vs an expected fall to 775K. As in the previous week, the last data was worsened to 848K vs 793K initially reported.

This indicator's trend has already ended in October, and the figures continue to creep slowly upwards, which is a dangerous development.

The number of repeat inquiries continues to trend downwards, falling below 4.5M in the week to February 6th. Partly this is due to Americans finding other jobs quickly, which is good.

However, this figure is partly falling because unemployment insurance is in effect for a limited time, so fewer people have the opportunity to reapply, which is not so good. Open / Comment

2021-02-18 18:17:04 #WaveAnalysis

#EURAUD under bearish pressure

• Likely to test the support level 1.5400

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/euraud-wave-analysis-18-february-2021-20210218/ Open / Comment

2021-02-18 13:00:31 Will the next short-squeeze take place on Oil?

The price of oil and gas has received a powerful driver in recent days with extreme weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere on top of Middle East tensions over the weekend and better-than-expected macrodata.

But with 77% in a dizzying rally since the beginning of November and obviously shirt-termism of this market situation, traders should carefully open shorts.

The real short-squeeze is yet to come. Fluctuations in the US and European grades are still very measured. Simultaneously, the signal for a market reversal could be a jump of several per cent beyond the established trading ranges and the boundaries of reasonable prices.

For WTI, the upper boundary would be in the area of $64-$65 versus $61.50. Brent is now trading at $64.50, with $67-$70 being the upper level.

https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/will-the-next-short-squeeze-take-place-on-oil-20210218/ Open / Comment

2021-02-17 19:17:51 #WaveAnalysis

#Platinum reversed from resistance level 1350

• Likely to fall to support level 1200

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/platinum-wave-analysis-17-february-2021-20210217/ Open / Comment

2021-02-17 16:59:46 #WaveAnalysis

#Nikkei225 broke round resistance level 30000

• Likely to reach resistance level 31000

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nikkei-225-wave-analysis-16-february-2021-20210216/ Open / Comment

2021-02-17 15:59:46 #WaveAnalysis

#USDCAD reversed from support level 1.2600

• Likely to reach resistance level 1.2760

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/usdcad-wave-analysis-16-february-2021-20210216/ Open / Comment

2021-02-17 15:18:23 There are growing fears in the markets that the inflation genie is out of the bottle. So far, these fears can be discerned in the form of stronger-than-expected inflation and steadily rising long-term bond yields worldwide, including Britain.

New data for the UK further supports this hypothesis. Last month's set of price data exceeded expectations. The CPI index accelerated to 0.7% y/y in January, and the retail price index rose to 1.4% y/y.

Early inflation indicators such as PPI set the stage for an acceleration in price growth in the coming months. Producer selling prices added 0.9% in three months, and purchasing prices added 2.3%. Retailers will soon pass rising costs onto consumers as sales steadily rise (+6.4% YoY ex-fuel).

A rebound in inflation is often a favourable sign of economic recovery. The flip side of the coin is that accelerating inflation before the economy fully recovers may force the Bank of England to abandon its soft policy, therefore delaying a quick recovery. Open / Comment

2021-02-17 13:29:29 Death cross drags gold down to $1630

Gold has shed its positions for the fifth consecutive trading session after it failed in its attempt to return above the 50- and 200-day averages. So it was an apparent failure to return to the growing trend.

A separate bearish short-term signal is the sinking of the 50-day average under the 200-day average, the so-called “death cross”. Such a pattern last formed in June 2018, after which the price lost 10% in the following two months. In 2016, the decline near such a signal reached 13% and also lasted about two months.

It will wash away 50% of the two-year growth and would drive the price back to $1630.

https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/death-cross-drags-gold-down-to-1630-20210217/ Open / Comment

2021-02-16 14:42:29 EURUSD has resumed climbing, rising to 1.2160 after four sessions of hovering around 1.2120. Buying intensified with higher-than-expected data, with the biggest upside surprise coming from the ZEW.

The German economic sentiment index rose from 61.8 to 71.2 vs expected decline to 59.7. German businesses are increasingly optimistic about the future after the October-November dip despite the lockdown. A similar improvement is shown by the whole eurozone index, rising from 58.3 to 69.6, near the September peak.

Also supporting the euro is the higher-than-expected trade surplus for the euro area (yesterday) and Italy (today). Healthy trade surplus is an important sign of the health of demand for exports, despite 10% strengthening of EURUSD over the past year.

The optimistic macro data might tip the scales in favour of further euro purchases after the correction. A consolidation of the pair above the 50-day average (now 1.2150) could be the final signal of the end of the month-long correction. Open / Comment