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2021-02-23 18:10:23 House prices in the US continue their breakaway. Fresh data from FHFA noted a 1.1% increase in house prices during December, and this is the seventh consecutive month of price increases of more than 1%. According to this metric, prices are now 11.4% higher than a year earlier.

A separate report from S&P CoreLogic noted an increase of 10.1% y/y. Excluding the rebound in prices after the mortgage crisis, the current price growth rate takes us back to the mortgage boom of the early 2000s.

Earlier, we have noted a return to the 2000s pattern in commodities and agricultural commodities and increased pressure for growth stocks. These are all different manifestations of the situation 20 years ago when the US was pursuing looser monetary and fiscal policies at a time of very high growth elsewhere.

As a result, commodity and energy prices flew up, and the dollar and high-tech companies declined. It is impossible to predict how long the current situation will last, but we see a repeat of the same trends so far. Open / Comment

2021-02-23 12:57:52 Rising dollar vs markets: what will be the primary trend of 2021
With higher interest rates, it is harder for them to access easy financing. It seems paradoxical at first glance that improving macroeconomic conditions are putting pressure on growth companies.

This is visible in the decline of Tesla by 20% and Apple by 15% from their peaks at the end of January. And that decline is gaining momentum, causing the Nasdaq Composite to drop 2.5% on Monday with 5% losses over five trading sessions of decline in a row.

Further increase in market volatility may force the Fed to come to the rescue by expanding the bond purchases programme.

But such moves carry reputational risks for the Fed, which could be accused of losing its independence and funding the government. And this would be disastrous news for the dollar. Later today, the Fed governor delivers his semi-annual address to Congress. His speech could hint at which path the Fed will take: supporting the dollar or low rates and markets. Open / Comment

2021-02-22 20:00:55 #WaveAnalysis

Natural gas (#NTG) reversed from resistance level 3.300

• Likely to reach support level 2.700

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/natural-gas-wave-analysis-22-february-2021-20210222/ Open / Comment

2021-02-22 19:55:48 #WaveAnalysis

#Gold reversed from key support level 1766.00

• Likely to rise to 1825

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/gold-wave-analysis-22-february-2021-20210222/ Open / Comment

2021-02-22 13:27:54 The new rise of the commodities

Stock markets are under moderate for fifth consecutive session of declines for the S&P500. Meanwhile, the sell-off in long-term bonds continues, causing yields to rise.

Such fears of inflation are a breeding ground for rising commodity prices and commodity-related AUD and CAD. And there are several reasons for this, which also have strong macroeconomic underpinnings.

Firstly, the coronavirus restrictions have dealt a severe blow to services, but not to production.

Secondly, traders in the markets do not have much of a choice of assets to hedge against inflation.

Thirdly, ‘cheap’ money is now an opportunity to buy oil, gas, industrial metals and agricultural commodities well ahead of a full-blown return in demand.

An important sign from the market is that the Australian and Canadian dollars have broken through their established trading ranges. And it sees as just the beginning of long-term trend. Open / Comment

2021-02-19 17:29:45 #WaveAnalysis

#NZDUSD broke resistance level 0.7250

• Likely to rise to resistance level 0.7315

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/nzdusd-wave-analysis-19-february-2021-20210219/ Open / Comment

2021-02-19 16:59:51 #WaveAnalysis

#AUDUSD broke resistance level 0.7800

• Likely to test resistance level 0.8000

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/audusd-wave-analysis-19-february-2021-20210219/ Open / Comment

2021-02-19 14:11:26 GBPUSD storming 1.4000 despite a huge drop in retail sales

A dip in UK retail sales of 8.2% in January does not seem to have succeeded in dampening buyer interest in the British pound. The drop in sales is linked to a strict lockdown last month, but progress in vaccination allows markets to be optimistic about the future, benefiting the pound.

GBPUSD is approaching 1.4000, a psychologically crucial round level. Sterling has been showing a steady upward trend since last September and has accelerated its growth this month.

The currency market seems to be positively surprised by the progress in vaccination in the UK, in addition to reassurances from Bank of England officials that negative rates are not on the agenda.

https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/gbpusd-storming-1-4000-despite-a-huge-drop-in-retail-sales-20210219/ Open / Comment

2021-02-19 13:46:50 Hidden demand for the dollar on declining stocks and bonds

Global markets are intensifying trends of profit-taking from the gains of previous months. This is clearly visible in the weaker performance of the Nasdaq100 (-0.7%) compared to the S&P500 (-0.44%) and DowJones30 (-0.38%) and intensifying pressure for market stars such as Apple and Tesla.

The decline in the equity market is accompanied by continued pressure in the debt markets where higher yield means a lower price.

The big question for short-term investors is what asset are the big funds exiting into by selling stocks and bonds? What if it is an exit into the dollar?

https://fxpro.news/daily-economic-events/hidden-demand-for-the-dollar-on-declining-stocks-and-bonds-20210219/ Open / Comment

2021-02-18 18:44:46 #WaveAnalysis

#Sugar broke the key resistance level 17.00

• Likely to rise to 18.00

https://fxpro.news/market-snapshots/sugar-wave-analysis-18-february-2021-20210218/ Open / Comment