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2022-06-10 10:21:13 #WaveAnalysis

#EURCAD reversed from support level 1.3400
• Likely to rise to resistance level 1.3600

EURCAD continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the key support level 1.3400 (which stopped the previous waves (5) and (B) in April and May).

The upward reversal from the support level 1.3400 created the daily Bullish Engulfing – which started the active wave (2).

Given the strength of the support level 1.3400, EURCAD can be expected to rise further toward the next resistance level 1.3600.

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2022-06-10 09:53:32 Loss of correlation with stocks will pave the way for crypto to portfolios

Bitcoin was down 0.3% on Thursday, continuing to hover around $30K. This mild decline was a bonus of last month's loss of correlation between the cryptocurrency and stock markets.

Ethereum lost 0.4%, settling near $1800. Other top-10 altcoins showed mixed dynamics, ranging from a 2.5% decline (Cardano) to a 3.6% rise (Solana).

Financial market veteran Peter Brandt believes Ethereum is in a downward triangle and could fall to $1268 within a month.

The total capitalisation of the crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap, fell 0.2% overnight to $1.24 trillion. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index were up 2 points to 13 by Friday and remains in "extreme fear" mode.

Bitcoin has crossed the $30K mark almost daily over the past month, with no significant preponderance of buyers or sellers to form a clear trend. Open / Comment

2022-06-09 16:34:56 The odd EUR growth after the ECB meeting
The European Central Bank has kept its key rate unchanged and officially announced that it will stop buying as part of its asset purchase programme from July 1. In an accompanying commentary, the ECB explicitly indicated that it intends to raise the rate by 25 points at its next meeting, depriving the markets of intrigue for the coming weeks.
However, the ECB also indicated that it intends to tighten policy in September and could raise the rate by 50 points.
Quite expectedly, the ECB's stance looks much softer – dovish – compared with that of the central banks in the USA, UK, Canada, Australia and several others that are many months ahead of the European Central Bank in their policy reversal.
Moreover, the ECB has lowered its GDP forecasts for this year and the next, from 3.7% to 2.8% in 2022 and from 2.8% to 2.1% in 2023.
With such a clear difference in policy and worsening forecasts, it was unexpected to see a positive reaction from the single currency. In our view, Open / Comment

2022-06-09 12:57:43 Open / Comment

2022-06-09 12:44:53 Upcoming ECB Interest Rate & monetary Policy Decision at 11:45 GMT
Be prepared for EURO moves! Open / Comment

2022-06-09 11:18:12 GBPUSD has lost its recovery momentum. How low can it go?

The British Pound is retreating for a second day, returning below the 1.25 level, failing to build on the positive momentum at the start of the week.
The pressure appears to be driven by rising government bond yields in global markets, starting with but not limited to the US.

The intraday dynamics of GBPUSD show methodical intraday selling. This is another sign of the rebound’s local exhaustion, and we might expect a new round of declines later. A pullback of the FTSE100 from the local highs above 7600 is also working against the Pound. The British currency often has a positive correlation to the demand for risks, and its reduction contributes to selling the Pound in forex.

The final point of a new move down could be the 1.1500 area - near the March 2020 low. But before directing the pair to these historical levels, the bears have yet to prove their strength. Open / Comment

2022-06-09 10:07:45 The nature of the cryptocurrency market, built on hype, convinces us that a lack of movement is the worst news for cryptocurrencies. Perhaps only strong moves can attract interest. Crypto traders anxiously recall the “crypto winter” of 2018. However, a crypto summer lull that started a month ago may not be any easier. It’s a worrying lull that risks quickly turning into a selloff. We still believe that the bear market for Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market has yet to play its final act, and that should be expected before the end of the year.

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor believes bitcoin will never fall to zero as international regulators look for ways to control crypto assets rather than impose a total ban on them.

Anne Boden, CEO of UK bank Starling, said cryptocurrencies are too often linked to fraud and money laundering, making them a threat to traditional payment systems. Open / Comment

2022-06-09 09:56:40 Cryptocurrency’s lingering lull

Bitcoin was down 3.7% on Wednesday, ending the day near the $30.2K level, which it remains near on Thursday morning. The overall subdued sentiment towards cryptocurrencies coincided with a pullback in stock indices. However, the dynamics of the previous days suggest that this is more of a coincidence than a correlation.

Cryptocurrencies have entered a period of the most pronounced and prolonged lull since late 2020, as the total cryptocurrency cap hovers between $1.2 and $1.3 trillion for almost a month. This lull is also reducing trading volumes, as the entire cryptocurrency industry often attracts the attention of lovers of solid moves.

In the past 24 hours, Ethereum has lost 0.5%, hovering around $1800 at writing. Altcoins from the top 10 show small multidirectional movements from a 0.75% decline (BNB, Solana) to a 0.7% rise (Polkadot).

The cryptocurrency fear and greed index were down 6 points to 11 by Thursday and remains in “extreme fear”. Open / Comment

2022-06-08 15:32:58 This mood contrasts sharply with the active policy tightening moves in the USA in many other developed countries and is a fundamental reason for using the yen as a funding currency.
If the Bank of Japan manages to conduct a controlled landing of the yen at another, fundamentally lower level, it would restore competitiveness to Japanese exports and provide a driver to turn on the industrial engine, which has often stalled in recent years.

In the meantime, investors and traders should be prepared for a permanent yen decline over this year or the first half of the next one if we now see Europe and the US abandoning their zero-interest-rate policy, as policymakers there hinted recently.

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2022-06-08 15:32:34 USDJPY could climb as high as 150 as the BoJ’s hands are tied

The USDJPY has added for the sixth trading session out of the last seven, this week renewing 20-year highs. The pair reached 134, getting very close to the extremes of January 2001, near 135.
We see that this new momentum is as strong, if not stronger, than what we found in March-April. The first impulse was a 14% weakening of the yen against the dollar for two months.

The central bank and finance ministers started to talk down the yen, indicating that a sharp deterioration was undesirable.
The pullback, triggered by verbal interventions and speculation that the BoJ might reduce QE to tighten policy and protect the yen, only bought time but turned the market around.

In the last days of May, it was clear that the monetary watchdogs favoured continued stimulus and did not change their policy. Open / Comment