The United States is clearly failing to seize the initiative and start aggressively ramping up its production. According to figures published on Friday evening from Baker Hughes, the number of working rigs rose by three last week to 765, of which 605 (+4 for the week) produce oil. However, we saw a much higher production growth rate in 2009 and 2016, even though the world was by no means suffering from an energy crisis at the time.
At the same time, the technical picture does not yet allow for a recovery of the bullish rally. WTI fell under the 200 SMA at the beginning of August, and despite the bullish comments of OPEC, it did not manage to go back above that level.
The price managed to bounce back from the August lows to levels of 76.4% from the June lows, which fits into the traditional retracement pattern.
