USSR 2.0

2022-04-26 18:56:46 POV: The Global Internet might not survive this confliсt

There has been much debate over the years about the likelihood of a ‘splinternet’ and so-called ‘balkanization’ or fragmentation of the global Internet. A key concern has been that the “open, globally connected Internet we all use splinters into a collection of fragmented networks controlled by governments or corporations”.

Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia and China were, for instance, already negotiating for a “new, top-down internet protocol that would give internet providers the ability to block any website or app”, raising concerns that ambitions could lead to an Internet of different networks divided along national borders, where governments could control imported Internet content. A key reason for why such splintering has not yet comprehensively come about is mainly states’ strategic self-interest to remain connected, while working to nudge the status quo to suit their ambitions.

Last month, the White House issued its starkest warning yet that “evolving” intelligence indicates Moscow is planning major cyber operations against the United States in retaliation for the economic penalties that the country has imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. It may only be a matter of time before these warnings become a reality.

But the United States also cannot let a significant cyberattack against its critical infrastructure go unanswered. While U.S. military strategy dictates that it does not need to limit a response to a cyberattack to the cyber domain, this situation might be one of the instances when an initial response in cyberspace might be appropriate.

One such measured response could be a cyber operation that causes a widespread disruption to Internet service across Russia. Even though some analysts argue that such measures would not cause permanent damage, it actually would.

First, this would create a precedent and push an escalatory spiral of symmetric responses and legitimize such measures as a tool of hybrid war

From a technology perspective, this would require a certain disruptions in infrastructure and operations that might cause irreparable damage to existing global infrastructure

This would be the end of multistakeholder governance of the Internet meaning that naturally protected a neutrality of underlying Internet infrastructure

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2022-04-26 18:25:26 Despite Russia’s failure to break down Ukraine’s defences, heavy casualties and a series of military defeats, the Kremlin has kept up a refrain: the goals of Vladimir Putin’s invasion will be reached in full.

Russia’s territorial targets have appeared to shift depending on the short-term gains Putin feels his troops can achieve on the battlefield. He scaled back an initial plan to seize central areas including the capital, Kyiv, in favour of a new assault focused on the eastern Donbas region.

But Russia’s goals, which the Russian president has made clear include ending Ukrainian statehood, remain unchanged, according to people involved in efforts to broker a peace deal between Moscow and Kyiv.

Source: FT

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2022-04-14 14:32:02 #StandWithUkraine

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2022-04-14 13:22:27 Deepfakes - the new frontiers of information war

Our friends from one of the Independent Russian Hackers Community shared an example of political deepfake where Putin addresses the nation with a declaration of reaching the peace with Ukraine.

As for their information, Russian government has invested a considerable resources to develop deepfakes at-scale to reproduce them on Russian TV to reinforce propaganda.

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2022-04-14 13:08:51 For the US President Joe Biden, the pain Americans are feeling in their pocketbooks comes down to an increasingly repeated slogan: "Putin's price hike." For more than a month now, his administration has tried to blame rising prices on the Russian president's invasion of Ukraine. But the truth is a little more complicated, analysts say.

Inflation and even gas prices have been on the rise even before the invasion of Ukraine. Aside from food and energy, rent was the biggest factor in the price increases. Airline fares, household furnishings and operations, medical care and motor vehicle insurance also contributed to inflation.

The recent FED's report though in line with expectations, does nothing to temper concerns that the Federal Reserve has a tough job ahead of it in cooling this inflation without sparking a recession.

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2022-04-14 12:42:37 Russia vs. Ukraine : How does this end?

The fighting could continue for weeks or longer, taking more lives on top of the tens of thousands already lost. The Kremlin has expressed maximalist demands as the price for a cease-fire and did not react positively when Kyiv hinted at some readiness to compromise.

The key question: Will Putin agree to a real negotiation, or will he continue to press on with his war of choice?

The Russian military’s operations plan to date has been described by one knowledgeable analyst as “bizarre” and not exploiting Russian advantages. That said, the Russian military, with some 125 battalion tactical groups in Ukraine, has mass and numbers. If mass and numbers determine who will win this war, Russia will prevail.

That raises the question of Putin’s political goal. If the Russians defeat the Ukrainian military and take Kyiv, Putin presumably wants to put in place a pro-Russian government. Sustaining that government, however, would almost certainly require occupation by Russian military and security forces. They would face a population that is angry, nationalistic and, in many cases, armed — and that would resist. Such an occupation could prove a major drain on an economically weakened Russia.

However, wars are about more than numbers. By all appearances, Ukrainians are highly motivated and determined, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has come into his own as a true and inspiring wartime leader. For now, the question of Russia prevailing remains an “if,” not a “when.” If the Ukrainians hold out, one outcome could be stalemate, with continued fighting but neither side able to dislodge the other. If the military costs pile up on the Russian side, the Kremlin retains the option — though Putin would not want to exercise it — of calling it quits and going home, perhaps somehow proclaiming victory.

A settlement effort thus could proceed along three tracks: a negotiation between Kyiv and Moscow, a negotiation on measures to enhance Europe’s security, and a discussion of sanctions relief. Yet those tracks can go nowhere absent a change in the Kremlin’s approach.

Will Putin rethink his objectives? On his current course, a military “victory” would appear to entail a years- or decades-long occupation of a hostile, anti-Russian Ukraine, political isolation from most of the world, and economic sanctions that will devastate the Russian economy. One would think there has to be a better option.


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2022-04-14 09:22:33 Russian invasion of Ukraine: Tracker

April 14, 2022

Estimated deaths: ~40,000
Non-fatal injuries: ~87,000
Buildings destroyed: ~5,000
Displaced: ~ 11,000,000
Property damage: $ 565 billion

Source: Reuters & BBC

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2022-04-10 17:46:09 How Russia could cut itself off from the global Internet, and why it probably won't

There has long been evidence that the Kremlin aspires to separate the Russian Internet from the rest of the world. In 2019, Russian lawmakers approved a series of amendments to the country's communications laws collectively known as the "Sovereign Internet Law". These obliged Russian Internet service providers to install equipment to monitor Internet traffic and centralised control of the country's communications networks.

They also brought about the creation of a Russian DNS, or "domain name system," a crucial piece of infrastructure if Russia were to separate its Internet from the rest of the world.

But despite the government's efforts, Russia is not ready to make the switch to a domestic DNS. The important factor is Russia's economic and technological reliance on the outside world. Unlike in China - another country that has tightly controlled Internet access - Russia's attempt at building a “sovereign Internet” is relatively recent. The country is far more integrated into the global internet, and far more economically reliant on the access it provides.

In the weeks since the invasion of Ukraine began, chipmakers, software providers and financial services have stopped doing business with Russian customers as sanctions take hold.
Among the companies pulling out of the country was the American internet service providers Cogent, one of the largest Internet backbone providers in the world, and Lumen, one of the largest international data transport providers in Russia.

While international ISPs pulling out of Russia will not cut the country off from the Internet, it will limit bandwidth, potentially lowering the speed of Internet traffic as remaining providers become increasingly congested.

Importantly, this will also negatively impact other neutral countries in region - specifically, the Central Asian countries.

The important argument against cutting off Russia's Internet access is that it could limit Russians' access to accurate information from abroad about the war in Ukraine.

But despite rumours of a total decoupling from the global Internet, and the threat of growing censorship within the country, the huge rise in VPN traffic from Russia, as well as efforts to offer access to information are a sign of hope.

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2022-04-10 15:15:09



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2022-04-07 17:52:03 The Russian currency has staged a remarkable comeback after taking a massive beating due to Western sanctions on Moscow.

A part of the recovery can be explained by a stronger financial position that Russia finds itself in thanks to a steep rise in revenues from oil and gas exports and a sharp drop in imports. Bloomberg Economics expects Russia will earn nearly $321 billion (€292 billion) from energy exports in 2022, up more than a third from last year, if its major customers, including the European Union, continue buying Russian oil and gas.

Experts say the rest of the rebound is a result of the ruble being artificially propped up by the Russian central bank through capital controls.

The currency moves don't represent the fundamentals of Russia. More often than not, you see the fundamentals reflected in the currency. But as soon as capital controls are put in place, then that obscures the picture.

The Russian economy, which the IMF in January forecast would grow 2.8% this year, is now predicted to shrink 10%-15%. Despite the recent upswing, the ruble's outlook appears less rosy in the longer term.

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