MICHIGAN
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PA gives me voter registration by party, as does IA, so I used those to model "Party ID" in MI, WI, and MN, where voters don't register by party.
As discussed at length in my threads, Party ID is the best way to predict the trajectory of the next election. PA had monstrous momentum for GOP (21-1 ratio), suggesting huge Trump win in 2020 (and it was right in predicting Trump 2016 win in PA).
You can see in all states, 2008 was peak year for Dems in the regions. 8 years of R president going in, all unions, soft Rs, and record minority turnout put Obama over easily here. All downhill from there, and all momentum to GOP from there. Big move in 2016 when DJT came on.
Models:
Crimson - voted for Romney, then bigger for Trump. According to PA reg, moving GOP.
Red - solid Trump
Purple - Obama county that flipped for Trump or trended.
Others - competitive or D machines. This area is heavily trending R and PA/IA registraitons suggest no change in 2020.
This is how I model MI, WI, MN.
