MICHIGAN
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My modeling, which once again is based on party registration numbers from PA based on similar coalition shift behavior since 2008, suggests Trump should or could have improved in margin (% won by or losing by) in as many as 77 of Michigan's 83 counties, with only 3 classifiying as Dem machines and 3 as Competitive/In Flux.
The map on the right is the trend from 2016. I know some of you will still say "my county wasn't blue!!!" but a trend is not the final result, but merely which candidate made the gains in the county from previous election.
Trump only improved performance in 25 of 83 counties, although increasing massively statewide in total votes and in every county.
It is interesting that all of Northern MI near Antrim completely tanked for Trump, but large segments in the interior trended pro-Trump.
Huron County is the county that trended as expected for both parties, while most of the others violated my principle for trends in a coalition shift with a declining population.
